Source: Wall Street Journal
The number of Americans whose homes are underwater – meaning they owe more in mortgage debt than the value of the home – is falling, even as home prices continue to fall or remain stagnant in most markets.
Data-provider CoreLogic’s third-quarter negative equity report, released Tuesday morning, shows that the number of homeowners with negative equity fell from 10.9 million to 10.7 million in the third quarter of 2011. If you include homeowners who have less than 5% equity in their homes, 27.1% of all properties with a mortgage are underwater or near to it, CoreLogic says.
The negative equity figure is crucial for two reasons: first, having home equity is a big economic driver because it increases consumer borrowing power and labor mobility, which are important in the early stages of recovery; second, homeowners who are underwater are far more likely to default on their loans and fall into foreclosure than those who are not.
CoreLogic’s report – released on the same day as the latest Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller indices, which chalked up a 3.9% yearly decline in home values nationally – shows that negative equity is concentrated largely in a few states, the usual suspects of the housing boom: Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Georgia and California. New York has the lowest level of negative equity of all 50 states, with only 6.3% of borrowers underwater.
The national level of negative equity has mostly been falling since the fourth quarter of 2009, with a slight blip at the end of 2010, when the level rose, as some homeowners have lost their homes to foreclosure and others have seen prices stabilize in their markets.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/fewer-underwater-borrowers--but--walkaway--risk-remains-high.aspx?cid=BP:113011:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Pending home sales get traction
Source: CNBC
Potential home buyers came out of the woodwork in October, signing contracts to buy existing homes at a higher-than expected pace.
Pending home sales jumped 10.4 percent compared to September, according to the National Association of Realtors, with the biggest gains in the Midwest, up 24 percent.
The Northeast also saw sizeable gains, as did the South. Only out West did buyers stay on the sidelines, with pending home sales there basically flat month to month.
“Home sales have been plodding along at a sub-par level while interest rates are hovering at record lows, and there is a pent-up demand from buyers who normally would have entered the market in recent years," said Realtor chief economist Lawrence Yun. "We hope this is indicates more buyers are taking advantage of the excellent affordability conditions.”
But even the Realtors caution that not all contracts turn into actual closed home sales. In fact, 18 percent of Realtors reported at least one cancelled contract in September, which is a huge jump from the normal level of between 4 and 6 percent.
Cancellations are running high for several reasons. First and foremost is credit. Many potential buyers are either not qualifying for a loan or not getting the interest rate they need; another reason is short sales, which are making up a growing percentage of distressed sales. This is when the bank allows the borrower to sell for less than the value of the mortgage. Short sales are a long and difficult process, requiring bank approval, and many potential buyers drop out in frustration.
Consumer confidence is not helping matters either. As the crisis in world financial markets sends the U.S. stock market on a roller coaster ride, many buyers get cold feet.
They also see continued home price declines, as seen in Tuesday's report from S&P/Case Shiller. That, Realtors say, can easily scuttle a deal.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/pending-home-sales-get-traction.aspx?cid=BP:113011:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Potential home buyers came out of the woodwork in October, signing contracts to buy existing homes at a higher-than expected pace.
Pending home sales jumped 10.4 percent compared to September, according to the National Association of Realtors, with the biggest gains in the Midwest, up 24 percent.
The Northeast also saw sizeable gains, as did the South. Only out West did buyers stay on the sidelines, with pending home sales there basically flat month to month.
“Home sales have been plodding along at a sub-par level while interest rates are hovering at record lows, and there is a pent-up demand from buyers who normally would have entered the market in recent years," said Realtor chief economist Lawrence Yun. "We hope this is indicates more buyers are taking advantage of the excellent affordability conditions.”
But even the Realtors caution that not all contracts turn into actual closed home sales. In fact, 18 percent of Realtors reported at least one cancelled contract in September, which is a huge jump from the normal level of between 4 and 6 percent.
Cancellations are running high for several reasons. First and foremost is credit. Many potential buyers are either not qualifying for a loan or not getting the interest rate they need; another reason is short sales, which are making up a growing percentage of distressed sales. This is when the bank allows the borrower to sell for less than the value of the mortgage. Short sales are a long and difficult process, requiring bank approval, and many potential buyers drop out in frustration.
Consumer confidence is not helping matters either. As the crisis in world financial markets sends the U.S. stock market on a roller coaster ride, many buyers get cold feet.
They also see continued home price declines, as seen in Tuesday's report from S&P/Case Shiller. That, Realtors say, can easily scuttle a deal.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/pending-home-sales-get-traction.aspx?cid=BP:113011:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
How housing's crisis hits buyers, sellers, and neither
Source: Business Insider
With each and every report comes "hope" that maybe, potentially, somehow the moribund housing market has finally reached its inevitable bottom and is now on the verge of the next great advance. Nothing could be further from the truth.
I say this with a bit of pain because I am a homeowner. I do not like seeing the annual appraisal values on my home falling - even though it means lower taxes. My home, as with most, is a very large investment of mine that I would like to see appreciate, however, the reality is that things may remain depressed for quite some time. In order to understand where we are potentially headed we have to understand where we have been.
Furthermore, it is critical to understand that all changes, whether in the markets or in housing, occur at the margin. Think about it this way - the majority of homeowners today are not sellers, they bought their home and they plan to live there for some period of time (7 years on average). Changes in life such as a job loss or change, children or retirement lead to most decisions to buy or sell. However, out of the total population of home owners there is only a small percentage at any one time that are making decisions, either by force or choice, to complete a transaction. Therefore, as we analyze housing reports it is important to remember that changes to housing occur at the edges with those individuals that are actively seeking to buy or sell a property right now. Unfortunately, those activities at the margin affect the values of the whole.
Today the mainstream media stated that "New U.S. single-family home sales rose in October and the supply of homes on the market fell to its lowest level since April of last year, showing some healing in the battered housing sector." This certainly sounds like a very encouraging report until you begin to look into the numbers.
New home sales, according to the report, rose to 307,000 in October from 303,000 in September. However, this is only after September's sales were revised down from 313,000 to 303,000 and August was revised down by 3,000. Therefore, to put this in perspective new home sales for October were at the same level that they were in May and below where they were in January.
Even more disappointing is that the current level of sales is more than 50% below the long term average of new home sales of 672,000 each month. Of course, the lack of sales in new homes is dragging down prices as the glut of inventory overwhelms the limited number of buyers. In other words, the activity at the margin, which is dismal from a historical perspective, is dragging down the pricing of all homes affecting you and me.
However, this is not just occurring in new home sales alone. If we take a look at the recent releases of existing home sales we see much of the same dismal level of activity occurring. In October the number of existing homes sold, according to the National Association of Realtors, was 497,000 which was up slightly from the September level of 491,000 but down from the August levels of 503,000.
With existing home sales well off of levels that would be considered healthy; we must also remember that there are two things that are occurring at the margin that affect all homeowners individually.
The first is that many of the sales in existing homes are occurring due to distress, default, delinquency, etc. Furthermore, existing homes compete with new homes in pricing. Therefore, the pressure to reduce the selling price of existing homes to compete with new homes on the market continues unabated. The current level of price "reversion" still has quite a bit more to go before reaching the long term median home price levels. With personal incomes on the decline, credit conditions very tight and inflationary prices continuing to rise the "affordability" of housing may continue to remain under pressure for some time to come.
Secondly, this pricing pressure at the margin affects particularly those that need to sell to get out from underneath the mortgage burden. However, the decline in prices has left them stranded because now their home is worth less than what they owe on it. This is turn leads to what is called "lack of mobility" as these homeowners would like to sell in order to move to a better location for a better job, move into a rental to reduce the burden on the income or sell to downsize into something more affordable but can't because they are literally "stuck" in their home.
This activity at the margin also affects home builder's ability to build new homes. Not surprisingly a very weak housing market, pricing pressures between new and existing homes and very tight credit conditions is keeping new home construction at very depressed levels. This is important because new home construction is a critical component to economic recovery. Each dollar invested in building a new home has a "multiplier effect" in the overall economy of more than $4. This is why all economic recoveries in the past have been led by new home construction and a resurgence in manufacturing. Without those two components engaged a strong economic recovery is likely to remain very elusive.
With housing starts and permits continuing to plumb the lows not seen in the history of the index back to 1960 the overburden of existing supply for sale and a limited number of qualified buyers will continue to keep home builders on the sidelines. Furthermore, it should not be a surprise, that there is an inverse correlation between employment and new home starts - "no job = no house."
While recent reports have shown mild upticks in data it is important to keep it all into perspective. The ongoing credit crunch, high unemployment, lower values, excess supply and low household formation will continue to pressure real estate prices for quite some time to come. So while the media looks for its daily dose of sunshine the reality is that at the margin the changes that are occurring is driven by the supply and demand of those that have a "For Sale" sign in the lawn and those who are actively looking to buy. When prices were going parabolic it was the "idiots" that we loved for driving our home prices higher. The belief was that the cycle of higher home prices would continue indefinitely and somehow our home became an investment vehicle.
Now, the fallacy of that illusion which was caused by those at the margin has come home to roost. With more sellers than buyers in the market the supply/demand curve is skewed heavily to supply dragging prices lower. As a result all homeowners will very likely continue to experience the effects of home price deflation in urban areas. Yet, because home prices are such an emotional topic, the mainstream media and economists alike will continue to troll for nuggets of goodness. However, as individuals with a real stake in the game, we should be considering the impact of sustained depreciation on the psyche of homeowners and, in turn, the impact on the economy longer term.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/how-housing-s-crisis-hits-buyers--sellers--and-neither.aspx?cid=BP:112911:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
With each and every report comes "hope" that maybe, potentially, somehow the moribund housing market has finally reached its inevitable bottom and is now on the verge of the next great advance. Nothing could be further from the truth.
I say this with a bit of pain because I am a homeowner. I do not like seeing the annual appraisal values on my home falling - even though it means lower taxes. My home, as with most, is a very large investment of mine that I would like to see appreciate, however, the reality is that things may remain depressed for quite some time. In order to understand where we are potentially headed we have to understand where we have been.
Furthermore, it is critical to understand that all changes, whether in the markets or in housing, occur at the margin. Think about it this way - the majority of homeowners today are not sellers, they bought their home and they plan to live there for some period of time (7 years on average). Changes in life such as a job loss or change, children or retirement lead to most decisions to buy or sell. However, out of the total population of home owners there is only a small percentage at any one time that are making decisions, either by force or choice, to complete a transaction. Therefore, as we analyze housing reports it is important to remember that changes to housing occur at the edges with those individuals that are actively seeking to buy or sell a property right now. Unfortunately, those activities at the margin affect the values of the whole.
Today the mainstream media stated that "New U.S. single-family home sales rose in October and the supply of homes on the market fell to its lowest level since April of last year, showing some healing in the battered housing sector." This certainly sounds like a very encouraging report until you begin to look into the numbers.
New home sales, according to the report, rose to 307,000 in October from 303,000 in September. However, this is only after September's sales were revised down from 313,000 to 303,000 and August was revised down by 3,000. Therefore, to put this in perspective new home sales for October were at the same level that they were in May and below where they were in January.
Even more disappointing is that the current level of sales is more than 50% below the long term average of new home sales of 672,000 each month. Of course, the lack of sales in new homes is dragging down prices as the glut of inventory overwhelms the limited number of buyers. In other words, the activity at the margin, which is dismal from a historical perspective, is dragging down the pricing of all homes affecting you and me.
However, this is not just occurring in new home sales alone. If we take a look at the recent releases of existing home sales we see much of the same dismal level of activity occurring. In October the number of existing homes sold, according to the National Association of Realtors, was 497,000 which was up slightly from the September level of 491,000 but down from the August levels of 503,000.
With existing home sales well off of levels that would be considered healthy; we must also remember that there are two things that are occurring at the margin that affect all homeowners individually.
The first is that many of the sales in existing homes are occurring due to distress, default, delinquency, etc. Furthermore, existing homes compete with new homes in pricing. Therefore, the pressure to reduce the selling price of existing homes to compete with new homes on the market continues unabated. The current level of price "reversion" still has quite a bit more to go before reaching the long term median home price levels. With personal incomes on the decline, credit conditions very tight and inflationary prices continuing to rise the "affordability" of housing may continue to remain under pressure for some time to come.
Secondly, this pricing pressure at the margin affects particularly those that need to sell to get out from underneath the mortgage burden. However, the decline in prices has left them stranded because now their home is worth less than what they owe on it. This is turn leads to what is called "lack of mobility" as these homeowners would like to sell in order to move to a better location for a better job, move into a rental to reduce the burden on the income or sell to downsize into something more affordable but can't because they are literally "stuck" in their home.
This activity at the margin also affects home builder's ability to build new homes. Not surprisingly a very weak housing market, pricing pressures between new and existing homes and very tight credit conditions is keeping new home construction at very depressed levels. This is important because new home construction is a critical component to economic recovery. Each dollar invested in building a new home has a "multiplier effect" in the overall economy of more than $4. This is why all economic recoveries in the past have been led by new home construction and a resurgence in manufacturing. Without those two components engaged a strong economic recovery is likely to remain very elusive.
With housing starts and permits continuing to plumb the lows not seen in the history of the index back to 1960 the overburden of existing supply for sale and a limited number of qualified buyers will continue to keep home builders on the sidelines. Furthermore, it should not be a surprise, that there is an inverse correlation between employment and new home starts - "no job = no house."
While recent reports have shown mild upticks in data it is important to keep it all into perspective. The ongoing credit crunch, high unemployment, lower values, excess supply and low household formation will continue to pressure real estate prices for quite some time to come. So while the media looks for its daily dose of sunshine the reality is that at the margin the changes that are occurring is driven by the supply and demand of those that have a "For Sale" sign in the lawn and those who are actively looking to buy. When prices were going parabolic it was the "idiots" that we loved for driving our home prices higher. The belief was that the cycle of higher home prices would continue indefinitely and somehow our home became an investment vehicle.
Now, the fallacy of that illusion which was caused by those at the margin has come home to roost. With more sellers than buyers in the market the supply/demand curve is skewed heavily to supply dragging prices lower. As a result all homeowners will very likely continue to experience the effects of home price deflation in urban areas. Yet, because home prices are such an emotional topic, the mainstream media and economists alike will continue to troll for nuggets of goodness. However, as individuals with a real stake in the game, we should be considering the impact of sustained depreciation on the psyche of homeowners and, in turn, the impact on the economy longer term.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/how-housing-s-crisis-hits-buyers--sellers--and-neither.aspx?cid=BP:112911:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Hispanic households grow, accounting for more than half of new homeowners
by JUSTIN T. HILLEY
Hispanic households accounted for more than half of the nation's homeowners in the third quarter, evidence of the potential purchasing power of Latinos during the housing recovery.
According to Census Bureau data provided by Alejandro Becerra, former senior housing fellow at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute, the number of Hispanic owner-occupiers grew by 288,000 from 6.21 million in the second quarter to 6.49 million in the third quarter.
Of 545,000 new household units in the third quarter, 53% were Hispanic households. The remaining 47%, or 257,000 units, consisted of other minority groups and non-Hispanic whites.
"We have to give due cause to Hispanic real estate professionals, to the many nonprofit groups out the that are trying to put into place the foreclosure prevention programs to keep people in their homes, to help new homebuyers," Becerra said. "All this is beginning to bear fruit in reaching out to these households."
Minority households are taking advantage of the lower end of the housing market where, Becerra believes, prices have hit the bottom. "It's the only place where the possibility of buying is right now," he said.
In contrast, middle-income families and even upper income households are stalled because many of them owe more than their homes are worth "so the only hope for the future has to come from the younger households who are able to buy now," Becerra said. The chart below, provided by National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, shows the growth of Hispanic purchasing power has more than doubled.
According to Fannie Mae's 2010 third-quarter housing survey, 61% of Hispanics said they expect their financial situation to get better over the next year, compared to 41% of all Americans and 57% of Hispanics consider owning a home a symbol of success whereas only 33% of all Americans feel that way.
Ernie Reyes and Gary Acosta, co-founders of NAHREP said home-buying activity among Latinos will be even greater as the market stabilizes. Reyes and Acosta have tracked the progress of Hispanic home ownership over the past 10 years.
“Latinos do not believe in renting. “They believe in owning,” says Reyes. “If our community was given half the opportunity it deserves, this volume would grow by leaps and bounds.”
Foreclosures related to the subprime crisis delivered a highly disproportionate blow to Latinos, however.
Blacks and Hispanics with credit scores higher than 660 received subprime and option adjustable-rate mortgages three times as often as white borrowers in similar financial standing between 2004 and 2008, according to a new study from the Center for Responsible Lending.
"Hispanics are now helping struggling local economies across our nation through population growth and purchase power. We believe these same dynamics will be a driving force in the resurgence of the housing market in the near term," said NAHREP President Carmen Mercado.
NAHREP is a 20,000-member real estate trade association with 50 affiliate chapters in 48 states.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/28/hispanic-households-grow-accounting-for-more-than-half-of-new-homeowners
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Hispanic households accounted for more than half of the nation's homeowners in the third quarter, evidence of the potential purchasing power of Latinos during the housing recovery.
According to Census Bureau data provided by Alejandro Becerra, former senior housing fellow at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute, the number of Hispanic owner-occupiers grew by 288,000 from 6.21 million in the second quarter to 6.49 million in the third quarter.
Of 545,000 new household units in the third quarter, 53% were Hispanic households. The remaining 47%, or 257,000 units, consisted of other minority groups and non-Hispanic whites.
"We have to give due cause to Hispanic real estate professionals, to the many nonprofit groups out the that are trying to put into place the foreclosure prevention programs to keep people in their homes, to help new homebuyers," Becerra said. "All this is beginning to bear fruit in reaching out to these households."
Minority households are taking advantage of the lower end of the housing market where, Becerra believes, prices have hit the bottom. "It's the only place where the possibility of buying is right now," he said.
In contrast, middle-income families and even upper income households are stalled because many of them owe more than their homes are worth "so the only hope for the future has to come from the younger households who are able to buy now," Becerra said. The chart below, provided by National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, shows the growth of Hispanic purchasing power has more than doubled.
According to Fannie Mae's 2010 third-quarter housing survey, 61% of Hispanics said they expect their financial situation to get better over the next year, compared to 41% of all Americans and 57% of Hispanics consider owning a home a symbol of success whereas only 33% of all Americans feel that way.
Ernie Reyes and Gary Acosta, co-founders of NAHREP said home-buying activity among Latinos will be even greater as the market stabilizes. Reyes and Acosta have tracked the progress of Hispanic home ownership over the past 10 years.
“Latinos do not believe in renting. “They believe in owning,” says Reyes. “If our community was given half the opportunity it deserves, this volume would grow by leaps and bounds.”
Foreclosures related to the subprime crisis delivered a highly disproportionate blow to Latinos, however.
Blacks and Hispanics with credit scores higher than 660 received subprime and option adjustable-rate mortgages three times as often as white borrowers in similar financial standing between 2004 and 2008, according to a new study from the Center for Responsible Lending.
"Hispanics are now helping struggling local economies across our nation through population growth and purchase power. We believe these same dynamics will be a driving force in the resurgence of the housing market in the near term," said NAHREP President Carmen Mercado.
NAHREP is a 20,000-member real estate trade association with 50 affiliate chapters in 48 states.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/28/hispanic-households-grow-accounting-for-more-than-half-of-new-homeowners
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Welcome New Family Members
Just wanted to take a minute to Welcome aboard our wonderful new agents.
In our Hanford office, Richard Lee will be working with the great agents and Harold Zapata our manger.
Janelle Pereira formerly of Coldwell Banker in Merced, will be working out of our great Merced office.
Joey Bertao will be working out of our Chowchilla office.
Justin Anderson has joined our great Clovis Office.
Welcome to the family and go get'em!!!!
If you or anyone your know is looking for a new career...give Real Estate a try. Go to www.tiore.com
In our Hanford office, Richard Lee will be working with the great agents and Harold Zapata our manger.
Janelle Pereira formerly of Coldwell Banker in Merced, will be working out of our great Merced office.
Joey Bertao will be working out of our Chowchilla office.
Justin Anderson has joined our great Clovis Office.
Welcome to the family and go get'em!!!!
If you or anyone your know is looking for a new career...give Real Estate a try. Go to www.tiore.com
Monday, November 28, 2011
As housing crash rash hits other nations, U.S. housing's undervalued
Source: The Economist
MANY of the world’s financial and economic woes since 2008 began with the bursting of the biggest bubble in history. Never before had house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Yet the bust has been much less widespread than the boom. Home prices tumbled by 34% in America from 2006 to their low point earlier this year; in Ireland they plunged by an even more painful 45% from their peak in 2007; and prices have fallen by around 15% in Spain and Denmark. But in most other countries they have dipped by less than 10%, as in Britain and Italy. In some countries, such as Australia, Canada and Sweden, prices wobbled but then surged to new highs. As a result, many property markets are still looking uncomfortably overvalued.
The latest update of The Economist’s global house-price indicators shows that prices are now falling in eight of the 16 countries in the table, compared with five in late 2010. (For house prices from more countries see our website). To assess the risks of a further slump, we track two measures of valuation. The first is the price-to-income ratio, a gauge of affordability. The second is the price-to-rent ratio, which is a bit like the price-to-earnings ratio used to value companies. Just as the value of a share should reflect future profits that a company is expected to earn, house prices should reflect the expected benefits from home ownership: namely the rents earned by property investors (or those saved by owner-occupiers). If both of these measures are well above their long-term average, which we have calculated since 1975 for most countries, this could signal that property is overvalued.
Based on the average of the two measures, home prices are overvalued by about 25% or more in Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, New Zealand, Britain, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden (see table). Indeed, in the first four of those countries housing looks more overvalued than it was in America at the peak of its bubble. Despite their collapse, Irish home prices are still slightly above “fair” value—partly because they were incredibly overvalued at their peak, and partly because incomes and rents have fallen sharply. In contrast, homes in America, Japan and Germany are all significantly undervalued. In the late 1990s the average house price in Germany was twice that in France; now it is 20% cheaper.
This raises two questions. First, since American homes now look cheap, are prices set to rebound? Average house prices are 8% undervalued relative to rents, and 22% undervalued relative to income (see chart). Prices may have reached a floor, but this is no guarantee of an imminent bounce. In Britain and Sweden in the mid-1990s, prices undershot fair value by around 35%. Prices in Britain did not really start to rise for almost four years after they bottomed. Some 4m foreclosed homes could come onto America’s market, which may hold down prices.
The second question is whether home prices in markets that are still overvalued are likely to fall. Some economists reject our measures of overvaluation, arguing that lower interest rates justify higher prices because buyers can take out bigger mortgages. There is some truth in this, but interest rates will not always be so low. The recent jump in bond yields in some euro-area countries has raised mortgage rates for new borrowers.
And low rates need to be balanced against the fact that tighter credit conditions make it harder for homebuyers to get mortgages. The average deposit needed by a British first-time buyer is now equivalent to 90% of average annual earnings, according to Capital Economics, a consultancy. It was less than 20% in the late 1990s. Another popular argument used to justify sky-high prices in countries such as Australia and Canada is that a rising population pushes up demand. But this should raise both prices and rents, leaving their ratios unchanged.
Prices do not necessarily need to drop sharply to return to fair value. Adjustment could come through higher rents and wages. With low inflation, however, it could take a decade or more before price ratios return to their long-run average in some countries.
Jingle mail
American prices fell sharply, even though homes were less overvalued than they were in many other countries, because high-risk mortgages and a surge in unemployment caused distressed sales. In most other countries, lenders avoided the worst excesses of subprime lending, and unemployment rose by less, so there were fewer forced sales dragging prices down. America is also unusual in having non-recourse mortgages that let borrowers walk away with no liability.
An optimist could therefore argue that our gauges overstate the extent to which house prices are overvalued, and that if markets are only a bit too expensive they can adjust gradually without a sharp fall. It is important to remember, however, that lower interest rates and rising populations were used to justify higher prices in America and Ireland before their bubbles burst so spectacularly.
Another concern is that Australia, Britain, Canada, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain and Sweden all have even higher household-debt burdens in relation to income than America did at the peak of its bubble. Overvalued prices and large debts leave households vulnerable to a rise in unemployment or higher mortgage rates. A credit crunch or recession could cause house prices to tumble in many more countries.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/as-housing-crash-rash-hits-other-nations--u-s--housing-s-undervalued.aspx?cid=BP:112811:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
MANY of the world’s financial and economic woes since 2008 began with the bursting of the biggest bubble in history. Never before had house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Yet the bust has been much less widespread than the boom. Home prices tumbled by 34% in America from 2006 to their low point earlier this year; in Ireland they plunged by an even more painful 45% from their peak in 2007; and prices have fallen by around 15% in Spain and Denmark. But in most other countries they have dipped by less than 10%, as in Britain and Italy. In some countries, such as Australia, Canada and Sweden, prices wobbled but then surged to new highs. As a result, many property markets are still looking uncomfortably overvalued.
The latest update of The Economist’s global house-price indicators shows that prices are now falling in eight of the 16 countries in the table, compared with five in late 2010. (For house prices from more countries see our website). To assess the risks of a further slump, we track two measures of valuation. The first is the price-to-income ratio, a gauge of affordability. The second is the price-to-rent ratio, which is a bit like the price-to-earnings ratio used to value companies. Just as the value of a share should reflect future profits that a company is expected to earn, house prices should reflect the expected benefits from home ownership: namely the rents earned by property investors (or those saved by owner-occupiers). If both of these measures are well above their long-term average, which we have calculated since 1975 for most countries, this could signal that property is overvalued.
Based on the average of the two measures, home prices are overvalued by about 25% or more in Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, New Zealand, Britain, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden (see table). Indeed, in the first four of those countries housing looks more overvalued than it was in America at the peak of its bubble. Despite their collapse, Irish home prices are still slightly above “fair” value—partly because they were incredibly overvalued at their peak, and partly because incomes and rents have fallen sharply. In contrast, homes in America, Japan and Germany are all significantly undervalued. In the late 1990s the average house price in Germany was twice that in France; now it is 20% cheaper.
This raises two questions. First, since American homes now look cheap, are prices set to rebound? Average house prices are 8% undervalued relative to rents, and 22% undervalued relative to income (see chart). Prices may have reached a floor, but this is no guarantee of an imminent bounce. In Britain and Sweden in the mid-1990s, prices undershot fair value by around 35%. Prices in Britain did not really start to rise for almost four years after they bottomed. Some 4m foreclosed homes could come onto America’s market, which may hold down prices.
The second question is whether home prices in markets that are still overvalued are likely to fall. Some economists reject our measures of overvaluation, arguing that lower interest rates justify higher prices because buyers can take out bigger mortgages. There is some truth in this, but interest rates will not always be so low. The recent jump in bond yields in some euro-area countries has raised mortgage rates for new borrowers.
And low rates need to be balanced against the fact that tighter credit conditions make it harder for homebuyers to get mortgages. The average deposit needed by a British first-time buyer is now equivalent to 90% of average annual earnings, according to Capital Economics, a consultancy. It was less than 20% in the late 1990s. Another popular argument used to justify sky-high prices in countries such as Australia and Canada is that a rising population pushes up demand. But this should raise both prices and rents, leaving their ratios unchanged.
Prices do not necessarily need to drop sharply to return to fair value. Adjustment could come through higher rents and wages. With low inflation, however, it could take a decade or more before price ratios return to their long-run average in some countries.
Jingle mail
American prices fell sharply, even though homes were less overvalued than they were in many other countries, because high-risk mortgages and a surge in unemployment caused distressed sales. In most other countries, lenders avoided the worst excesses of subprime lending, and unemployment rose by less, so there were fewer forced sales dragging prices down. America is also unusual in having non-recourse mortgages that let borrowers walk away with no liability.
An optimist could therefore argue that our gauges overstate the extent to which house prices are overvalued, and that if markets are only a bit too expensive they can adjust gradually without a sharp fall. It is important to remember, however, that lower interest rates and rising populations were used to justify higher prices in America and Ireland before their bubbles burst so spectacularly.
Another concern is that Australia, Britain, Canada, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain and Sweden all have even higher household-debt burdens in relation to income than America did at the peak of its bubble. Overvalued prices and large debts leave households vulnerable to a rise in unemployment or higher mortgage rates. A credit crunch or recession could cause house prices to tumble in many more countries.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/as-housing-crash-rash-hits-other-nations--u-s--housing-s-undervalued.aspx?cid=BP:112811:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Is upward mobility over?
Source: Brookings Institution
The original version of this essay was the cover story in the November 14, 2011 issue of National Review, available at http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/282292/mobility-impaired-scott-winship.
What’s the most important issue in American politics? In a narrow sense, the sputtering economy and ballooning deficits are likely to dominate the 2012 election season. But while every election has its own particular concerns, fundamentally it is to the American Dream that our politicians must tend — that libertarian and egalitarian bundle of values and hopes that transcend our partisan, economic, and social divisions.
When the Pew Economic Mobility Project (EMP) surveyed people about what the American Dream meant, it got widely ranging answers.[1] Indiana’s governor, Mitch Daniels, recently hit on a common sentiment when he observed that “upward mobility from the bottom is the crux of the American promise.” But even those who would focus more broadly on the rising tide that lifts all boats should be concerned about the state of economic mobility in America. The economic inefficiency that results when much of the population is stuck at the bottom (and the top) means the tide may lift everyone less than it could.
One way to assess the extent of mobility is to ask whether people tend to be better off than their parents were at the same age — whether they experience upward absolute mobility. Research for EMP conducted by my colleagues at the Brookings Institution Julia Isaacs, Isabel Sawhill, and Ron Haskins shows that two-thirds of 40-year-old Americans are in households with larger incomes than their parents had at the same age, even taking into account the fact that the cost of living has risen.[2] That’s pretty impressive, but it actually understates the improvement between generations. Household size declined over these decades, so incomes now are divided up among fewer family members, leaving them better off than bigger households of the past. Another EMP study shows that when incomes are adjusted for household size, four out of five adults today are better off than their parents were at the same age.[3]
The finding of pervasive upward absolute mobility flies in the face of liberal accounts of a stagnant middle class. These accounts generally conflate disappointing growth in men’s earnings with growth in household income, which has been impressive. Growth in women’s earnings has also been impressive, but economic pessimists have twisted these bright spots to fit a gloomy narrative.[4] They claim that household incomes have kept pace only because wives have been forced into work to make up for the shrinking bacon their husbands bring home. That ignores the long-term trend of women’s obtaining more education in industrialized nations around the world, presumably with an intention to put it to use in the work force someday. It also ignores the evidence that married men rationally chose to reduce their work hours as their wives increased theirs (even as single men continued working the same hours), and the fact that employment grew more among the wives of better-educated men than among the wives of less-educated men.[5]
Nevertheless, incomes have not grown as fast in recent decades as they did in the middle of the 20th century. While the vast majority of Americans end up better off than their parents, the difference is probably not as great as the improvement of their parents over their grandparents was.
There’s another way to look at intergenerational mobility — asking whether those whose parents were at the bottom or at the top relative to Americans as a whole end up in the same place in adulthood. This is the question of relative mobility. You may have a higher income than your parents did, but if that is generally true of your generation, then your rank may be no different than your parents’ rank was. It may even be lower. And having less than others can figure more prominently in our assessment of our well-being than does merely having more than our parents did — as may be the case with scarce commodities, such as homes in the best school districts or slots at the best universities.
The EMP/Brookings analyses break the parent and child generations into fifths on the basis of each generation’s income distribution. If being raised in the bottom fifth were not a disadvantage and socioeconomic outcomes were random, we would expect to see 20 percent of Americans who started in the bottom fifth remain there as adults, while 20 percent would end up in each of the other fifths. Instead, about 40 percent are unable to escape the bottom fifth.[6] This trend holds true for other measures of mobility: About 40 percent of men will end up in low-skill work if their fathers had similar jobs, and about 40 percent will end up in the bottom fifth of family wealth (as opposed to income) if that’s where their parents were.[7]
URL to original aticle: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/is-upward-mobility-over-.aspx?cid=BP:112811:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
The original version of this essay was the cover story in the November 14, 2011 issue of National Review, available at http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/282292/mobility-impaired-scott-winship.
What’s the most important issue in American politics? In a narrow sense, the sputtering economy and ballooning deficits are likely to dominate the 2012 election season. But while every election has its own particular concerns, fundamentally it is to the American Dream that our politicians must tend — that libertarian and egalitarian bundle of values and hopes that transcend our partisan, economic, and social divisions.
When the Pew Economic Mobility Project (EMP) surveyed people about what the American Dream meant, it got widely ranging answers.[1] Indiana’s governor, Mitch Daniels, recently hit on a common sentiment when he observed that “upward mobility from the bottom is the crux of the American promise.” But even those who would focus more broadly on the rising tide that lifts all boats should be concerned about the state of economic mobility in America. The economic inefficiency that results when much of the population is stuck at the bottom (and the top) means the tide may lift everyone less than it could.
One way to assess the extent of mobility is to ask whether people tend to be better off than their parents were at the same age — whether they experience upward absolute mobility. Research for EMP conducted by my colleagues at the Brookings Institution Julia Isaacs, Isabel Sawhill, and Ron Haskins shows that two-thirds of 40-year-old Americans are in households with larger incomes than their parents had at the same age, even taking into account the fact that the cost of living has risen.[2] That’s pretty impressive, but it actually understates the improvement between generations. Household size declined over these decades, so incomes now are divided up among fewer family members, leaving them better off than bigger households of the past. Another EMP study shows that when incomes are adjusted for household size, four out of five adults today are better off than their parents were at the same age.[3]
The finding of pervasive upward absolute mobility flies in the face of liberal accounts of a stagnant middle class. These accounts generally conflate disappointing growth in men’s earnings with growth in household income, which has been impressive. Growth in women’s earnings has also been impressive, but economic pessimists have twisted these bright spots to fit a gloomy narrative.[4] They claim that household incomes have kept pace only because wives have been forced into work to make up for the shrinking bacon their husbands bring home. That ignores the long-term trend of women’s obtaining more education in industrialized nations around the world, presumably with an intention to put it to use in the work force someday. It also ignores the evidence that married men rationally chose to reduce their work hours as their wives increased theirs (even as single men continued working the same hours), and the fact that employment grew more among the wives of better-educated men than among the wives of less-educated men.[5]
Nevertheless, incomes have not grown as fast in recent decades as they did in the middle of the 20th century. While the vast majority of Americans end up better off than their parents, the difference is probably not as great as the improvement of their parents over their grandparents was.
There’s another way to look at intergenerational mobility — asking whether those whose parents were at the bottom or at the top relative to Americans as a whole end up in the same place in adulthood. This is the question of relative mobility. You may have a higher income than your parents did, but if that is generally true of your generation, then your rank may be no different than your parents’ rank was. It may even be lower. And having less than others can figure more prominently in our assessment of our well-being than does merely having more than our parents did — as may be the case with scarce commodities, such as homes in the best school districts or slots at the best universities.
The EMP/Brookings analyses break the parent and child generations into fifths on the basis of each generation’s income distribution. If being raised in the bottom fifth were not a disadvantage and socioeconomic outcomes were random, we would expect to see 20 percent of Americans who started in the bottom fifth remain there as adults, while 20 percent would end up in each of the other fifths. Instead, about 40 percent are unable to escape the bottom fifth.[6] This trend holds true for other measures of mobility: About 40 percent of men will end up in low-skill work if their fathers had similar jobs, and about 40 percent will end up in the bottom fifth of family wealth (as opposed to income) if that’s where their parents were.[7]
URL to original aticle: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/is-upward-mobility-over-.aspx?cid=BP:112811:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Applications for purchase mortgages rise
Source: Calculated Risk
The Refinance Index decreased 4.0 percent from the previous week to its lowest level since July 29, 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8.2 percent from last week to its highest level since August 12, 2011.
...
"Purchase applications increased last week, returning to levels from before the Veteran's Day holiday," said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics. "However, purchase activity remains almost 5 percent below last year's level."
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) remained unchanged at 4.23 percent, with points decreasing to 0.46 from 0.52 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. ...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500)increased to 4.59 percent from 4.56 percent, with points decreasing to 0.40 from 0.46 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.
Although the purchase index increased, the index is still sharply below the levels of June and July - and at about the same level as in 1996. This does not include cash buyers, and, according to the NAR, cash buyers "accounted for 29 percent of purchases in October".
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/applications-for-purchase-mortgages-rise.aspx?cid=BP:112311:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
The Refinance Index decreased 4.0 percent from the previous week to its lowest level since July 29, 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8.2 percent from last week to its highest level since August 12, 2011.
...
"Purchase applications increased last week, returning to levels from before the Veteran's Day holiday," said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics. "However, purchase activity remains almost 5 percent below last year's level."
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) remained unchanged at 4.23 percent, with points decreasing to 0.46 from 0.52 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. ...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500)increased to 4.59 percent from 4.56 percent, with points decreasing to 0.40 from 0.46 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.
Although the purchase index increased, the index is still sharply below the levels of June and July - and at about the same level as in 1996. This does not include cash buyers, and, according to the NAR, cash buyers "accounted for 29 percent of purchases in October".
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/applications-for-purchase-mortgages-rise.aspx?cid=BP:112311:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
October Existing-Home Sales Rise, Unsold Inventory Continues to Decline
Source: National Association of Realtors
Existing-home sales improved in October while the number of homes on the market continued to decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million in October from a downwardly revised 4.90 million in September, and are 13.5 percent above the 4.38 million unit level in October 2010.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market has been fairly steady but at a lower than desired level. “Home sales have been stuck in a narrow range despite several improving factors that generally lead to higher home sales such as job creation, rising rents and high affordability conditions. Many people who are attempting to buy homes are thwarted in the process,” he said.
“A higher rate of contract failures has held back a sales recovery. Contract failures2 reported by NAR members jumped to 33 percent in October from 18 percent in September, and were only 8 percent a year ago, so we should be seeing stronger sales,” Yun added.
Contract failures are cancellations caused by declined mortgage applications, failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price, or other problems including home inspections and employment losses. “Other recent factors include disruption in the National Flood Insurance Program, and lower loan limits for conventional mortgages, which paradoxically force some of the most creditworthy consumers to pay unnecessarily higher interest rates,” Yun said.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.07 percent in October from 4.11 percent in September; the rate was 4.23 percent in October 2010.
NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said consumers can increase their odds of obtaining a mortgage by being aware of how credit scores are determined. “If you want to get a mortgage, don’t buy a car or take on new installment debt or credit cards,” he said.
“Pay all your bills on time, maintain old credit lines and don’t use more than 30 percent of your credit limit. Realtors® can help you understand the issues surrounding access to affordable credit, in addition to helping you find the right home and negotiate terms,” Veissi said.
An ongoing positive trend is a steady decline in the number of homes on the market. Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 2.2 percent to 3.33 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.0-month supply3 at the current sales pace, down from an 8.3-month supply in September. Inventories have been trending gradually down since setting a record of 4.58 million in July 2008.
The national median existing-home price4 for all housing types was $162,500 in October, which is 4.7 percent below October 2010. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales typically sold at deep discounts – slipped to 28 percent of sales in October from 30 percent in September (17 percent were foreclosures and 11 percent were short sales); they were 34 percent in October 2010.
“In some areas we’re hearing about shortages of foreclosure inventory in the lower price ranges with multiple bidding on the more desirable properties,” Yun said. “Realtors® in such areas are calling for a faster process of getting foreclosure inventory into the market because they have ready buyers. In addition, extending credit to responsible investors would help to absorb inventory at an even faster pace, which would go a long way toward restoring market balance.”
All-cash sales accounted for 29 percent of purchases in October, little changed from 30 percent in September and 29 percent in October 2010; investors make up the bulk of cash transactions.
Investors purchased 18 percent of homes in October, compared with 19 percent in September and 19 percent in October 2010. First-time buyers accounted for 34 percent of transactions in October, up from 32 percent in September; they were 32 percent in October 2010.
Single-family home sales increased 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.38 million in October from 4.31 million in September, and are 13.8 percent higher than the 3.85 million-unit pace one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $161,600 in October, which is 5.8 percent below October 2010.
Existing condominium and co-op sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 in October but are 10.5 percent above the 534,000-unit level in October 2010. The median existing condo price5 was $160,300 in October, down 1.5 percent from a year ago.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 5.1 percent to an annual level of 750,000 in October but are 1.4 percent above October 2010. The median price in the Northeast was $224,400, down 5.5 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 2.8 percent in October to a pace of 1.10 million and are 19.6 percent higher than October 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $132,800, which is 4.7 percent below a year ago.
In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.1 percent to an annual level of 1.94 million in October and are 14.1 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $145,700, down 1.6 percent from October 2010.
Existing-home sales in the West rose 4.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.19 million in October and are 15.5 percent higher than October 2010. The median price in the West was $207,500, which is 1.6 percent below a year ago.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
URL to original article: http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/11/ehs_oct
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Existing-home sales improved in October while the number of homes on the market continued to decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million in October from a downwardly revised 4.90 million in September, and are 13.5 percent above the 4.38 million unit level in October 2010.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market has been fairly steady but at a lower than desired level. “Home sales have been stuck in a narrow range despite several improving factors that generally lead to higher home sales such as job creation, rising rents and high affordability conditions. Many people who are attempting to buy homes are thwarted in the process,” he said.
“A higher rate of contract failures has held back a sales recovery. Contract failures2 reported by NAR members jumped to 33 percent in October from 18 percent in September, and were only 8 percent a year ago, so we should be seeing stronger sales,” Yun added.
Contract failures are cancellations caused by declined mortgage applications, failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price, or other problems including home inspections and employment losses. “Other recent factors include disruption in the National Flood Insurance Program, and lower loan limits for conventional mortgages, which paradoxically force some of the most creditworthy consumers to pay unnecessarily higher interest rates,” Yun said.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.07 percent in October from 4.11 percent in September; the rate was 4.23 percent in October 2010.
NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said consumers can increase their odds of obtaining a mortgage by being aware of how credit scores are determined. “If you want to get a mortgage, don’t buy a car or take on new installment debt or credit cards,” he said.
“Pay all your bills on time, maintain old credit lines and don’t use more than 30 percent of your credit limit. Realtors® can help you understand the issues surrounding access to affordable credit, in addition to helping you find the right home and negotiate terms,” Veissi said.
An ongoing positive trend is a steady decline in the number of homes on the market. Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 2.2 percent to 3.33 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.0-month supply3 at the current sales pace, down from an 8.3-month supply in September. Inventories have been trending gradually down since setting a record of 4.58 million in July 2008.
The national median existing-home price4 for all housing types was $162,500 in October, which is 4.7 percent below October 2010. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales typically sold at deep discounts – slipped to 28 percent of sales in October from 30 percent in September (17 percent were foreclosures and 11 percent were short sales); they were 34 percent in October 2010.
“In some areas we’re hearing about shortages of foreclosure inventory in the lower price ranges with multiple bidding on the more desirable properties,” Yun said. “Realtors® in such areas are calling for a faster process of getting foreclosure inventory into the market because they have ready buyers. In addition, extending credit to responsible investors would help to absorb inventory at an even faster pace, which would go a long way toward restoring market balance.”
All-cash sales accounted for 29 percent of purchases in October, little changed from 30 percent in September and 29 percent in October 2010; investors make up the bulk of cash transactions.
Investors purchased 18 percent of homes in October, compared with 19 percent in September and 19 percent in October 2010. First-time buyers accounted for 34 percent of transactions in October, up from 32 percent in September; they were 32 percent in October 2010.
Single-family home sales increased 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.38 million in October from 4.31 million in September, and are 13.8 percent higher than the 3.85 million-unit pace one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $161,600 in October, which is 5.8 percent below October 2010.
Existing condominium and co-op sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 in October but are 10.5 percent above the 534,000-unit level in October 2010. The median existing condo price5 was $160,300 in October, down 1.5 percent from a year ago.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 5.1 percent to an annual level of 750,000 in October but are 1.4 percent above October 2010. The median price in the Northeast was $224,400, down 5.5 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 2.8 percent in October to a pace of 1.10 million and are 19.6 percent higher than October 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $132,800, which is 4.7 percent below a year ago.
In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.1 percent to an annual level of 1.94 million in October and are 14.1 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $145,700, down 1.6 percent from October 2010.
Existing-home sales in the West rose 4.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.19 million in October and are 15.5 percent higher than October 2010. The median price in the West was $207,500, which is 1.6 percent below a year ago.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
URL to original article: http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/11/ehs_oct
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
As inventory falls to a four-year low, the question now is: Scarcity or just plain scared?
Source: Wall Street Journal
The number of homes listed for sale fell for the fifth straight month in October, hitting the lowest level in more than four years.
The 2.12 million homes listed for sale in October was down by 3.5% from September and down by 21% from one year ago, according to data compiled by Realtor.com.
The Realtor.com figures include sale listings from more than 900 multiple-listing services across the country. They don’t include all homes for sale, including those that are “for sale by owner” and other properties that aren’t marketed through multiple-listing services.
Inventories typically rise by around 0.8% in October from September, according to Zelman & Associates, a research firm. But they have been falling for several recent months amid a slowdown in foreclosures by banks and as home sellers, frustrated by low-ball offers, hold their properties from the market.
Inventories declined in 29 of the 30 major metro areas during October, led by Portland, Ore. (-6.9%); Seattle (-5.3%); and Dallas (-5.2%). Inventories increased in Phoenix by 0.4%.
Six markets saw a monthly uptick in median asking prices, led by Phoenix (5.1%), Dallas (1.2%), and San Francisco (0.6%). Prices were flat in another eight markets, while they fell in 16 metros including Cleveland (-2.3%), St. Louis and Philadelphia (-2.1%).
For the year, the inventory of homes listed for sale is down most sharply in Miami (-49%), Phoenix (-48%), and Orlando (-45%).
The National Association of Realtors also reported a decline in the number of homes on the market. At the end of October, total housing inventory fell 2.2% to 3.33 million homes, the lowest level of the year.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/as-inventory-falls-to-a-four-year-low--the-question-now-is--scarcity-or-just-plain-scared-.aspx?cid=BP:112211:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
The number of homes listed for sale fell for the fifth straight month in October, hitting the lowest level in more than four years.
The 2.12 million homes listed for sale in October was down by 3.5% from September and down by 21% from one year ago, according to data compiled by Realtor.com.
The Realtor.com figures include sale listings from more than 900 multiple-listing services across the country. They don’t include all homes for sale, including those that are “for sale by owner” and other properties that aren’t marketed through multiple-listing services.
Inventories typically rise by around 0.8% in October from September, according to Zelman & Associates, a research firm. But they have been falling for several recent months amid a slowdown in foreclosures by banks and as home sellers, frustrated by low-ball offers, hold their properties from the market.
Inventories declined in 29 of the 30 major metro areas during October, led by Portland, Ore. (-6.9%); Seattle (-5.3%); and Dallas (-5.2%). Inventories increased in Phoenix by 0.4%.
Six markets saw a monthly uptick in median asking prices, led by Phoenix (5.1%), Dallas (1.2%), and San Francisco (0.6%). Prices were flat in another eight markets, while they fell in 16 metros including Cleveland (-2.3%), St. Louis and Philadelphia (-2.1%).
For the year, the inventory of homes listed for sale is down most sharply in Miami (-49%), Phoenix (-48%), and Orlando (-45%).
The National Association of Realtors also reported a decline in the number of homes on the market. At the end of October, total housing inventory fell 2.2% to 3.33 million homes, the lowest level of the year.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/as-inventory-falls-to-a-four-year-low--the-question-now-is--scarcity-or-just-plain-scared-.aspx?cid=BP:112211:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Monday, November 21, 2011
Existing home sales beat 'The Street'
Source: Calculated Risk
The NAR reports: October Existing-Home Sales Rise, Unsold Inventory Continues to Decline
Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million in October from a downwardly revised 4.90 million in September, and are 13.5 percent above the 4.38 million unit level in October 2010.
Sales in October 2011 (4.97 million SAAR) were 1.4% higher than last month, and were 13.5% above the October 2010 rate. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 3.33 million in October from 3.41 million in September.
Inventory decreased 13.8% year-over-year in October from October 2010. This is the ninth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory.
Months of supply decreased to 8.0 months in October, down from 8.3 months in September. This is still higher than normal. These sales numbers were just above the consensus.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/existing-home-sales-beat-the-street.aspx?cid=BP:112111:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
The NAR reports: October Existing-Home Sales Rise, Unsold Inventory Continues to Decline
Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million in October from a downwardly revised 4.90 million in September, and are 13.5 percent above the 4.38 million unit level in October 2010.
Sales in October 2011 (4.97 million SAAR) were 1.4% higher than last month, and were 13.5% above the October 2010 rate. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 3.33 million in October from 3.41 million in September.
Inventory decreased 13.8% year-over-year in October from October 2010. This is the ninth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory.
Months of supply decreased to 8.0 months in October, down from 8.3 months in September. This is still higher than normal. These sales numbers were just above the consensus.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/existing-home-sales-beat-the-street.aspx?cid=BP:112111:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Make Money in 2012;A smaller house will make a big difference
By Carla Fried, Janice Revell, Donna Rosato and Tali Yahalom @Money
(MONEY Magazine) -- Last year the economic forecasting firm Fiserv predicted that home values would sink around 5% in 2011, and that prices in three-quarters of the nation's major metro areas would fall. The bad news is, the firm wasn't that far off the mark. The good news: In the coming year, Fiserv thinks 95% of the 384 metro areas it tracks will see prices rise.
Don't expect the market to move much beyond first gear, though. The median expectation among more than 100 economists and real estate pros surveyed by MacroMarkets is that home values will inch ahead by a mere 0.25%, compared to their 2011 median forecast decline of 2.8%. They also foresee annualized gains through 2015 of just 1.1%, as the real estate market slowly works its way through a mountain of foreclosures.
Those foreclosures will continue to weigh on the market. According to Core- Logic, there are 5.4 million homes that are for sale or part of the market's "shadow inventory" -- which includes bank-owned properties, homes in the foreclosure pipeline that haven't hit the market yet, or properties where owners are seriously behind on payments.
To put that in perspective, Freddie Mac forecasts that only 4.8 million homes will be purchased in all of 2012. A market with six months of inventory is considered healthy. That there's more than a year's worth of housing stock now tells you what a tough slog this will still be. "It's analogous to a flood," says Mark Fleming, CoreLogic's chief economist. "The water is very deep in the living room, but it's no longer getting deeper and is starting to recede.
Helping that process along will be low-interest-rate mortgages that are expected to remain cheap. Jay Brinkmann, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, says the 4.2% rate on a 30-year fixed rate in late October might not last long. Still, he expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to stay below 5% throughout 2012.
The action plan: It will pay to think small -- as in reduce your mortgage bills and focus on modest homes.
Buyers: Downsize the dream. For those gearing up to make a purchase, 2012 could be a great opportunity, what with cheap prices, low borrowing rates, and little competition among prospective bidders.
Before you take the plunge, remember that the price you pay matters, as does your ability to easily resell that home down the road.
Make Money in 2012: Jobs
This means it's best to focus on smaller properties in your area near restaurants and retail. McMansions of at least 2,600 square feet, which were the ideal in the boom years, are coveted by a mere 18% of households today, according to a recent survey by Trulia. And that figure could fall even more.
A separate survey by the National Association of Home Builders found that home-construction firms expect U.S. houses to average 2,152 square feet in 2015 -- down 10% from last year.
Some of this is attributable to the lingering effects of the past recession, which has eaten into housing budgets. But there's also a permanent change at play. "Baby boomers are trading down. They don't need the McMansion, and they don't want to drive as much," says Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko.
Sellers: Price it right. The longer you can wait for prices to stabilize in your area and for demand to pick up, the less likely you'll need to entertain low-ball offers. If you have to make a move in 2012, though, the trick will be to price your home correctly out of the gate.
According to a recent national survey of real estate agents, 75% of homeowners believe their house is worth more than what agents put the fair market value at, and nearly one in two homeowners still overestimate their home's value by more than 10%.
Meanwhile, Trulia reports that about one in four homes in its database has gone through at least one price reduction, and the average price cut for those homes is 8%.
Joe Magdziarz, president of the Appraisal Institute, says you and your agent should stick with comparable sales data just within the past 90 days, as that's what lenders expect appraisers to use.
What to do when mom and dad move in
If you don't trust your agent's recommendation, shell out $300 to $400 for an outside appraisal. That will be money well spent if it pushes you to list your home in sync with current market valuations and you sell faster.
Owners: Shorten your loan. Refinancing your old mortgage to a new fixed-rate loan could have you smiling for years to come. If there's any chance you can refinance into a 15-year loan, go for it; the 3.45% rate in late October was near an all-time low. On a $250,000 mortgage, going from a 30-year mortgage at 4.2% to a 15-year loan charging 3.45% would save you $120,000 in interest over the life of the loan.
What if the added $560 monthly payment is too steep to handle? Shop for a 20-year loan. The rate is likely to be only slightly less than on a 30-year loan, but the faster payback will save you in the long run.
Can't refinance because you don't have the 20% equity lenders typically demand these days? As long as you plan on being in your home for at least five years, look into a cash-in refinancing, where you bring some money to the closing table to push up your equity.
"If you can use cash that doesn't eat into your emergency savings, this makes a lot of sense," notes Michigan financial planner Gary Gilgen. "I'd rather have that money get my mortgage lower than have it sitting in the bank earning less than 1%."
URL to original article: http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/11/pf/make_money_2012_housing.moneymag/index.htm
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
(MONEY Magazine) -- Last year the economic forecasting firm Fiserv predicted that home values would sink around 5% in 2011, and that prices in three-quarters of the nation's major metro areas would fall. The bad news is, the firm wasn't that far off the mark. The good news: In the coming year, Fiserv thinks 95% of the 384 metro areas it tracks will see prices rise.
Don't expect the market to move much beyond first gear, though. The median expectation among more than 100 economists and real estate pros surveyed by MacroMarkets is that home values will inch ahead by a mere 0.25%, compared to their 2011 median forecast decline of 2.8%. They also foresee annualized gains through 2015 of just 1.1%, as the real estate market slowly works its way through a mountain of foreclosures.
Those foreclosures will continue to weigh on the market. According to Core- Logic, there are 5.4 million homes that are for sale or part of the market's "shadow inventory" -- which includes bank-owned properties, homes in the foreclosure pipeline that haven't hit the market yet, or properties where owners are seriously behind on payments.
To put that in perspective, Freddie Mac forecasts that only 4.8 million homes will be purchased in all of 2012. A market with six months of inventory is considered healthy. That there's more than a year's worth of housing stock now tells you what a tough slog this will still be. "It's analogous to a flood," says Mark Fleming, CoreLogic's chief economist. "The water is very deep in the living room, but it's no longer getting deeper and is starting to recede.
Helping that process along will be low-interest-rate mortgages that are expected to remain cheap. Jay Brinkmann, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, says the 4.2% rate on a 30-year fixed rate in late October might not last long. Still, he expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to stay below 5% throughout 2012.
The action plan: It will pay to think small -- as in reduce your mortgage bills and focus on modest homes.
Buyers: Downsize the dream. For those gearing up to make a purchase, 2012 could be a great opportunity, what with cheap prices, low borrowing rates, and little competition among prospective bidders.
Before you take the plunge, remember that the price you pay matters, as does your ability to easily resell that home down the road.
Make Money in 2012: Jobs
This means it's best to focus on smaller properties in your area near restaurants and retail. McMansions of at least 2,600 square feet, which were the ideal in the boom years, are coveted by a mere 18% of households today, according to a recent survey by Trulia. And that figure could fall even more.
A separate survey by the National Association of Home Builders found that home-construction firms expect U.S. houses to average 2,152 square feet in 2015 -- down 10% from last year.
Some of this is attributable to the lingering effects of the past recession, which has eaten into housing budgets. But there's also a permanent change at play. "Baby boomers are trading down. They don't need the McMansion, and they don't want to drive as much," says Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko.
Sellers: Price it right. The longer you can wait for prices to stabilize in your area and for demand to pick up, the less likely you'll need to entertain low-ball offers. If you have to make a move in 2012, though, the trick will be to price your home correctly out of the gate.
According to a recent national survey of real estate agents, 75% of homeowners believe their house is worth more than what agents put the fair market value at, and nearly one in two homeowners still overestimate their home's value by more than 10%.
Meanwhile, Trulia reports that about one in four homes in its database has gone through at least one price reduction, and the average price cut for those homes is 8%.
Joe Magdziarz, president of the Appraisal Institute, says you and your agent should stick with comparable sales data just within the past 90 days, as that's what lenders expect appraisers to use.
What to do when mom and dad move in
If you don't trust your agent's recommendation, shell out $300 to $400 for an outside appraisal. That will be money well spent if it pushes you to list your home in sync with current market valuations and you sell faster.
Owners: Shorten your loan. Refinancing your old mortgage to a new fixed-rate loan could have you smiling for years to come. If there's any chance you can refinance into a 15-year loan, go for it; the 3.45% rate in late October was near an all-time low. On a $250,000 mortgage, going from a 30-year mortgage at 4.2% to a 15-year loan charging 3.45% would save you $120,000 in interest over the life of the loan.
What if the added $560 monthly payment is too steep to handle? Shop for a 20-year loan. The rate is likely to be only slightly less than on a 30-year loan, but the faster payback will save you in the long run.
Can't refinance because you don't have the 20% equity lenders typically demand these days? As long as you plan on being in your home for at least five years, look into a cash-in refinancing, where you bring some money to the closing table to push up your equity.
"If you can use cash that doesn't eat into your emergency savings, this makes a lot of sense," notes Michigan financial planner Gary Gilgen. "I'd rather have that money get my mortgage lower than have it sitting in the bank earning less than 1%."
URL to original article: http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/11/pf/make_money_2012_housing.moneymag/index.htm
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Job Growth, Though Modest, Slows Mortgage Delinquencies.
By Nick Timiraos
The number of U.S. households delinquent on their mortgage payments fell below 8% in the third quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 9.1% one year ago to the lowest level since the end of 2008, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Around 4.4% of all households were in some stage of foreclosure, a number that is essentially unchanged over the past year.
The share of mortgages that had missed one payment during the third quarter fell to 3.2%, down from 3.5% last quarter to the lowest level in more than four years.
The decline in delinquencies is good news for the housing market and the economy. It follows a surprise uptick earlier this year that had raised concerns that the mortgage crisis was worsening.
The numbers are “reflecting that fact that we are continuing to get positive job growth” even though unemployment remains high, said Michael Fratantoni, vice president of research for the MBA.
Assuming the economy doesn’t sputter, “we’ll continue to see very gradual improvement in the delinquency rate,” he said. The housing market is at least three to four years away from moving towards a foreclosure rate that is closer to the historical 1% average. While “we’re on the downhill side of the mountain now,” he said, “we still have a long way to go.”
The data continue to show how state-specific foreclosure processes are increasingly determining the rate at which states clear their backlog of bad loans. States that require banks to process foreclosures by going to court tend to have larger foreclosure inventories than so-called “non-judicial” states.
In Florida, more than 14% of all mortgages were in foreclosure. That state has long led the nation in problem loans and had one of the biggest housing booms and busts.
But New Jersey, a state that didn’t have nearly as dramatic a building boom, had the second highest foreclosure inventory, above 8%, ahead of Nevada, which has had the highest rate of delinquent mortgages. Nine of the 10 states that exceeded the national average in foreclosure inventory are judicial states.
URL to original article: http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/11/17/mortgage-delinquencies-decline-in-the-third-quarter/
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
The number of U.S. households delinquent on their mortgage payments fell below 8% in the third quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 9.1% one year ago to the lowest level since the end of 2008, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Around 4.4% of all households were in some stage of foreclosure, a number that is essentially unchanged over the past year.
The share of mortgages that had missed one payment during the third quarter fell to 3.2%, down from 3.5% last quarter to the lowest level in more than four years.
The decline in delinquencies is good news for the housing market and the economy. It follows a surprise uptick earlier this year that had raised concerns that the mortgage crisis was worsening.
The numbers are “reflecting that fact that we are continuing to get positive job growth” even though unemployment remains high, said Michael Fratantoni, vice president of research for the MBA.
Assuming the economy doesn’t sputter, “we’ll continue to see very gradual improvement in the delinquency rate,” he said. The housing market is at least three to four years away from moving towards a foreclosure rate that is closer to the historical 1% average. While “we’re on the downhill side of the mountain now,” he said, “we still have a long way to go.”
The data continue to show how state-specific foreclosure processes are increasingly determining the rate at which states clear their backlog of bad loans. States that require banks to process foreclosures by going to court tend to have larger foreclosure inventories than so-called “non-judicial” states.
In Florida, more than 14% of all mortgages were in foreclosure. That state has long led the nation in problem loans and had one of the biggest housing booms and busts.
But New Jersey, a state that didn’t have nearly as dramatic a building boom, had the second highest foreclosure inventory, above 8%, ahead of Nevada, which has had the highest rate of delinquent mortgages. Nine of the 10 states that exceeded the national average in foreclosure inventory are judicial states.
URL to original article: http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/11/17/mortgage-delinquencies-decline-in-the-third-quarter/
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Friday, November 18, 2011
Housing inventory continues to drop
by JACOB GAFFNEY
The recent uptick in foreclosures is not yet translating to more houses on the market.
The total number of homes for sale is down 21% in October, year-on-year, according to the latest RE/MAX national housing report. The number dropped for 16 straight months.
The real estate agent franchise added that the month supply of properties is slightly down, to an average of 7.7 months to clear market inventory. Six months on market denotes more balance between supply and demand.
The months supply peaked a nearly 11 months in December 2010, by way of comparison.
On an annual basis, national sales prices are down 5.4%, but transactions are up 9%.
As the market moves deeper into Winter, RE/MAX expects a monthly decline in home sales.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/17/housing-inventory-continues-to-drop
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
The recent uptick in foreclosures is not yet translating to more houses on the market.
The total number of homes for sale is down 21% in October, year-on-year, according to the latest RE/MAX national housing report. The number dropped for 16 straight months.
The real estate agent franchise added that the month supply of properties is slightly down, to an average of 7.7 months to clear market inventory. Six months on market denotes more balance between supply and demand.
The months supply peaked a nearly 11 months in December 2010, by way of comparison.
On an annual basis, national sales prices are down 5.4%, but transactions are up 9%.
As the market moves deeper into Winter, RE/MAX expects a monthly decline in home sales.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/17/housing-inventory-continues-to-drop
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Housing affordability improves in California
by KERRY CURRY
Housing affordability increased in 22 of the Golden State's 28 metropolitan areas during the third quarter, according to the California Building Industry Association.
On a statewide basis, a family earning the median income could have afforded 63.5% of the new and existing homes sold during the three months ended Sept. 30, up from 61.3% in the second quarter.
"As builders continue to compete with a glut of foreclosures and as housing prices continue to find their footing, this remains an opportune time for prospective home buyers," said Mike Winn, CBIA’s president and CEO.
The San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin County metro area was California’s least-affordable for the 12th consecutive quarter, and second in the nation with just one-third of homes sold being affordable to a family earning the median income. That is also higher than 27.5% in the second quarter.
The metro area of Sutter County and Yuba County, about an hour north of Sacramento, was California’s most-affordable with 89.3% affordability, up from 88% in the second quarter.
Nationwide, 72.9% of new and existing homes sold in the third quarter were affordable to families earning the national median income, up slightly from 72.6% in the second quarter.
The New York City metro area is the nation's least-affordable market for the 14th consecutive quarter with 23.3% affordability. Fairbanks, Alaska, was the most-affordable housing market in the U.S. with 97.8% of its properties affordable for the average family.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/17/housing-affordability-improves-in-california
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Housing affordability increased in 22 of the Golden State's 28 metropolitan areas during the third quarter, according to the California Building Industry Association.
On a statewide basis, a family earning the median income could have afforded 63.5% of the new and existing homes sold during the three months ended Sept. 30, up from 61.3% in the second quarter.
"As builders continue to compete with a glut of foreclosures and as housing prices continue to find their footing, this remains an opportune time for prospective home buyers," said Mike Winn, CBIA’s president and CEO.
The San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin County metro area was California’s least-affordable for the 12th consecutive quarter, and second in the nation with just one-third of homes sold being affordable to a family earning the median income. That is also higher than 27.5% in the second quarter.
The metro area of Sutter County and Yuba County, about an hour north of Sacramento, was California’s most-affordable with 89.3% affordability, up from 88% in the second quarter.
Nationwide, 72.9% of new and existing homes sold in the third quarter were affordable to families earning the national median income, up slightly from 72.6% in the second quarter.
The New York City metro area is the nation's least-affordable market for the 14th consecutive quarter with 23.3% affordability. Fairbanks, Alaska, was the most-affordable housing market in the U.S. with 97.8% of its properties affordable for the average family.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/17/housing-affordability-improves-in-california
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Jobless claims at lowest level since April
by JASON PHILYAW
Initial jobless claims fell again last week, to the lowest level in seven months.
The Labor Department said the seasonally adjusted figure of actual initial claims for the week ended Nov. 12 decreased by 5,000 to 388,000 from 393,000 the previous week, which was revised upward 3,000.
Analysts surveyed by Econoday expected 395,000 new jobless claims last week with a range of estimates between 382,000 and 400,000. Most economists believe weekly jobless claims lower than 400,000 indicate the economy is expanding and jobs growth is strengthening. Initial claims have now been lower than this threshold for a month.
The four-week moving average, which is considered a less volatile indicator than weekly claims, declined by 4,000 claims to 396,750 from the prior week's slightly revised 400,750.
The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate for the week ended Nov. 5 remained unchanged at 2.9%, according to the Labor Department.
The total number of people receiving some sort of federal unemployment benefits for the week ended Oct. 29 fell to 6.77 million from nearly 6.84 million the prior week.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/17/jobless-claims-at-lowest-level-since-april
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Initial jobless claims fell again last week, to the lowest level in seven months.
The Labor Department said the seasonally adjusted figure of actual initial claims for the week ended Nov. 12 decreased by 5,000 to 388,000 from 393,000 the previous week, which was revised upward 3,000.
Analysts surveyed by Econoday expected 395,000 new jobless claims last week with a range of estimates between 382,000 and 400,000. Most economists believe weekly jobless claims lower than 400,000 indicate the economy is expanding and jobs growth is strengthening. Initial claims have now been lower than this threshold for a month.
The four-week moving average, which is considered a less volatile indicator than weekly claims, declined by 4,000 claims to 396,750 from the prior week's slightly revised 400,750.
The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate for the week ended Nov. 5 remained unchanged at 2.9%, according to the Labor Department.
The total number of people receiving some sort of federal unemployment benefits for the week ended Oct. 29 fell to 6.77 million from nearly 6.84 million the prior week.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/17/jobless-claims-at-lowest-level-since-april
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Homebuilder confidence improves, gradual gains expected in 2012
by KERRY CURRY
Homebuilder confidence in the market for new single-family homes rose by three points to 20 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo (WFC: 25.365 +0.30%) housing market index for November, the second consecutive monthly gain.
The NAHB said the number builds on a revised three-point increase in October, and brings the confidence gauge to its highest level since May 2010.
The trade group also predicted more gains next year.
"While this second solid monthly gain on the builder confidence scale is encouraging, the overall measure remains quite low due to the many challenges that homebuilding continues to face with regard to the high number of foreclosures, the difficulties of obtaining construction financing and accurate appraisals, and the restrictive lending environment that is discouraging potential buyers," said Bob Nielsen, NAHB chairman and a homebuilder from Reno, Nev.
NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said some buyers are being tempted back to the market by affordable prices and low interest rates.
"We are anticipating further, gradual gains in the builder confidence gauge heading into 2012 due to these pockets of improving conditions that are slowly spreading," Crowe said.
The index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as good, fair or poor. The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers. Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
The component gauging current sales conditions rose three points to 20 — its highest level since May 2010 — while the component gauging future sales expectations rose two points to 25 — its highest level since March. The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose one point to 15, its highest since May 2010.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/16/homebuilder-confidence-improves-gradual-gains-expected-in-2012
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Homebuilder confidence in the market for new single-family homes rose by three points to 20 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo (WFC: 25.365 +0.30%) housing market index for November, the second consecutive monthly gain.
The NAHB said the number builds on a revised three-point increase in October, and brings the confidence gauge to its highest level since May 2010.
The trade group also predicted more gains next year.
"While this second solid monthly gain on the builder confidence scale is encouraging, the overall measure remains quite low due to the many challenges that homebuilding continues to face with regard to the high number of foreclosures, the difficulties of obtaining construction financing and accurate appraisals, and the restrictive lending environment that is discouraging potential buyers," said Bob Nielsen, NAHB chairman and a homebuilder from Reno, Nev.
NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said some buyers are being tempted back to the market by affordable prices and low interest rates.
"We are anticipating further, gradual gains in the builder confidence gauge heading into 2012 due to these pockets of improving conditions that are slowly spreading," Crowe said.
The index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as good, fair or poor. The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers. Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
The component gauging current sales conditions rose three points to 20 — its highest level since May 2010 — while the component gauging future sales expectations rose two points to 25 — its highest level since March. The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose one point to 15, its highest since May 2010.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/16/homebuilder-confidence-improves-gradual-gains-expected-in-2012
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Report: Fresno home prices rose in October
Written by Business Journal staff
Median home prices in Fresno rose from September to October of this year, the California Association of Realtors reports.
The median price for a Fresno County home stood at $144,460 in October, compared to $141,770 in September, according to figures released on Tuesday. The rise is encouraging for sellers, however the median price is down from $149,460 recorded in October of 2010.
Fresno homes for sale were spending an average 4.3 months on the market in October, compared to 3.8 months in September. Last year’s figure was unavailable.
By contrast, homes in Sacramento County stayed on the market an average of 2.2 months in both September and October.
The association also reported that California home sales rose .9% from September to October of this year, with 493,240 housing units sold in October. October home sales also were up 8.5% from the 454,740 housing units sold during October of last year.
But in the Bay area and Southern California, many cities saw declines in median home prices.
“Based on preliminary analysis, it appears that the lower conforming loan limits has had a cooling effect on home sales in October, particularly in the higher cost markets across the state such as the San Francisco Bay area and coastal regions of Southern California,” said LeFrancis Arnold, president of the California Association of Realtors.
Low conforming loan limits apparently had minimal impact in most Central Valley counties. At the same time, lower prices and bottom-level interest rates attracted investors and family home buyers to the area.
Madera County saw a rise in median home prices from $125,380 in September to $132,500 in October. The prices were down from $140,000 in October of 2010. In Tulare County, the median price moved slightly upward from $122,940 in September to $123,080 in October. That compares to $123,750 in October of last year.
Kings County sellers were disappointed as median home prices fell slightly from $141,670 in September to $138,180 in October. Both figures were down from $135,000 recorded in October of 2010.
URL to original article: http://www.thebusinessjournal.com/real-estate/12115-report-fresno-home-prices-rose-in-october
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Median home prices in Fresno rose from September to October of this year, the California Association of Realtors reports.
The median price for a Fresno County home stood at $144,460 in October, compared to $141,770 in September, according to figures released on Tuesday. The rise is encouraging for sellers, however the median price is down from $149,460 recorded in October of 2010.
Fresno homes for sale were spending an average 4.3 months on the market in October, compared to 3.8 months in September. Last year’s figure was unavailable.
By contrast, homes in Sacramento County stayed on the market an average of 2.2 months in both September and October.
The association also reported that California home sales rose .9% from September to October of this year, with 493,240 housing units sold in October. October home sales also were up 8.5% from the 454,740 housing units sold during October of last year.
But in the Bay area and Southern California, many cities saw declines in median home prices.
“Based on preliminary analysis, it appears that the lower conforming loan limits has had a cooling effect on home sales in October, particularly in the higher cost markets across the state such as the San Francisco Bay area and coastal regions of Southern California,” said LeFrancis Arnold, president of the California Association of Realtors.
Low conforming loan limits apparently had minimal impact in most Central Valley counties. At the same time, lower prices and bottom-level interest rates attracted investors and family home buyers to the area.
Madera County saw a rise in median home prices from $125,380 in September to $132,500 in October. The prices were down from $140,000 in October of 2010. In Tulare County, the median price moved slightly upward from $122,940 in September to $123,080 in October. That compares to $123,750 in October of last year.
Kings County sellers were disappointed as median home prices fell slightly from $141,670 in September to $138,180 in October. Both figures were down from $135,000 recorded in October of 2010.
URL to original article: http://www.thebusinessjournal.com/real-estate/12115-report-fresno-home-prices-rose-in-october
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
California expands mortgage help to those with second homes
by JON PRIOR
California expanded its $2 billion program to help homeowners avoid foreclosure to those with second homes as well.
The California Housing Finance Agency established the four Keep Your Home programs using money from the Treasury Department's $7.6 billion Hardest Hit Fund. Before, borrowers were restricted from modifications, unemployment funds, relocation assistance and even principal reductions if they had a second home.
Officials eliminated the exclusion, because they said many homeowners are co-signers on a second home or are underwater on their first property.
Other changes to the programs include allowing borrowers to take advantage of principal reduction offers even if they completed a cash-out refinance in the past, which many Californians did during the boom.
CalHFA also increased the amount of unemployment assistance qualified borrowers would receive and how long they could get it. Out-of-work homeowners can receive up to $3,000 in mortgage and tax assistance per month for up to nine months, an increase from six months before the change.
Borrowers can also get $20,000 through a reinstatement program to use for past-due mortgage payments, up from $15,000.
"This expanded eligibility will allow more families to qualify and receive greater assistance," said Claudia Cappio, Executive Director of the California Housing Finance Agency.
In order to qualify for these programs, the borrower's servicer must participate. CalHFA said nearly 50 mortgage servicers now participate in at least one of the four. But only 11 servicers participate in the principal reduction program that requires the bank to match each dollar the agency removes from the loan.
While Bank of America (BAC: 6.10 +0.83%) joined the California principal reduction program in July, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans are still excluded.
The California Attorney General Kamala Harris recently called on both companies to provide principal reduction to her constituents.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/10/california-expands-mortgage-help-to-those-with-second-homes
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
California expanded its $2 billion program to help homeowners avoid foreclosure to those with second homes as well.
The California Housing Finance Agency established the four Keep Your Home programs using money from the Treasury Department's $7.6 billion Hardest Hit Fund. Before, borrowers were restricted from modifications, unemployment funds, relocation assistance and even principal reductions if they had a second home.
Officials eliminated the exclusion, because they said many homeowners are co-signers on a second home or are underwater on their first property.
Other changes to the programs include allowing borrowers to take advantage of principal reduction offers even if they completed a cash-out refinance in the past, which many Californians did during the boom.
CalHFA also increased the amount of unemployment assistance qualified borrowers would receive and how long they could get it. Out-of-work homeowners can receive up to $3,000 in mortgage and tax assistance per month for up to nine months, an increase from six months before the change.
Borrowers can also get $20,000 through a reinstatement program to use for past-due mortgage payments, up from $15,000.
"This expanded eligibility will allow more families to qualify and receive greater assistance," said Claudia Cappio, Executive Director of the California Housing Finance Agency.
In order to qualify for these programs, the borrower's servicer must participate. CalHFA said nearly 50 mortgage servicers now participate in at least one of the four. But only 11 servicers participate in the principal reduction program that requires the bank to match each dollar the agency removes from the loan.
While Bank of America (BAC: 6.10 +0.83%) joined the California principal reduction program in July, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans are still excluded.
The California Attorney General Kamala Harris recently called on both companies to provide principal reduction to her constituents.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/10/california-expands-mortgage-help-to-those-with-second-homes
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Monday, November 14, 2011
Los Banos man wins St. Jude Dream Home
Written by Business Journal staff
A Los Banos man got some great news this weekend upon winning the grand prize in the 8th annual St. Jude Dream Home Giveaway, a charity drive that has raised over $1 million this year to help young cancer patients in the Central Valley.
David Winterstein's winning $100 ticket was pulled Nov. 13 for the $430,000 house located in the Chestnut Grove community in northeast Fresno.
The home, built by local homebuilder DeYoung Properties, measures 2,019 square feet with three bedrooms, two baths and a formal dining room.
The home also includes a three-car tandem garage, an open-air courtyard, a covered patio and three gas fireplaces and comes complete with an alarm system and energy-efficient appliances.
Nineteen other prizes were given away during the drawing held by KMPH. St. Jude patients Sarah Bordona and Audra Koelewyn pulled out the winning tickets for a Pandora bracelet from Rogers Jewelers, a home plate box for a Fresno Grizzlies 2012 game, a $1,000 jewelry gift from the Fresno Coin Gallery and other giveaways.
“We are very appreciative to DeYoung Properties, KMPH FOX 26, KJUG 106.7, the Z 104.9, Univision Radio, The Fresno Bee, Business Street Online, Mor Furniture, Epsilon Sigma Alpha, Alpha Delta Kappa, Fresno Coin Gallery, Fresno County Federal Credit Union, Holiday Inn Riverpark, Rollo Latino Magazine, national sponsor, Brizo and the volunteers, local businesses and local residents whose generous support made this event possible,” said Clovis City Councilman Bob Whalen, Central Valley St. Jude Dream Home Chairman, in a press release.
Founded by Danny Thomas in 1962, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital has treated more than 24,000 young cancer patients from the Central Valley and across the world at no cost to their families.
URL to original article: http://www.thebusinessjournal.com/nonprofits/12107-los-banos-man-wins-st-jude-dream-home
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
A Los Banos man got some great news this weekend upon winning the grand prize in the 8th annual St. Jude Dream Home Giveaway, a charity drive that has raised over $1 million this year to help young cancer patients in the Central Valley.
David Winterstein's winning $100 ticket was pulled Nov. 13 for the $430,000 house located in the Chestnut Grove community in northeast Fresno.
The home, built by local homebuilder DeYoung Properties, measures 2,019 square feet with three bedrooms, two baths and a formal dining room.
The home also includes a three-car tandem garage, an open-air courtyard, a covered patio and three gas fireplaces and comes complete with an alarm system and energy-efficient appliances.
Nineteen other prizes were given away during the drawing held by KMPH. St. Jude patients Sarah Bordona and Audra Koelewyn pulled out the winning tickets for a Pandora bracelet from Rogers Jewelers, a home plate box for a Fresno Grizzlies 2012 game, a $1,000 jewelry gift from the Fresno Coin Gallery and other giveaways.
“We are very appreciative to DeYoung Properties, KMPH FOX 26, KJUG 106.7, the Z 104.9, Univision Radio, The Fresno Bee, Business Street Online, Mor Furniture, Epsilon Sigma Alpha, Alpha Delta Kappa, Fresno Coin Gallery, Fresno County Federal Credit Union, Holiday Inn Riverpark, Rollo Latino Magazine, national sponsor, Brizo and the volunteers, local businesses and local residents whose generous support made this event possible,” said Clovis City Councilman Bob Whalen, Central Valley St. Jude Dream Home Chairman, in a press release.
Founded by Danny Thomas in 1962, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital has treated more than 24,000 young cancer patients from the Central Valley and across the world at no cost to their families.
URL to original article: http://www.thebusinessjournal.com/nonprofits/12107-los-banos-man-wins-st-jude-dream-home
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Housing to gradually improve in 2012, NAR economist says
by KERRY CURRY
Gradual improvement in the housing market is expected next year, with existing-home sales edging up 4% to 5% and new home sales getting an even bigger boost off this year's record lows, the chief economist of the nation's largest real estate group said Friday.
"Tight mortgage credit conditions have been holding back homebuyers all year, and consumer confidence has been shaky recently," Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, said. "Nonetheless, there is a sizeable pent-up demand based on population growth, employment levels and a doubling-up phenomenon that can’t continue indefinitely."
Yun, who made his comments during the annual NAR conference for real estate agents under way in Anaheim, Calif., projected gross domestic product growth of 1.8% for 2011, rising to 2.2% in 2012 with the unemployment rate declining to 8.7% by the second half of 2012.
Mortgage interest rates, he predicted, would gradually rise from record 2011 lows to 4.5% by the middle of 2012.
"Very favorable affordability conditions will dominate next year as well, which will probably be the second best year on record dating back to 1970. Our hope is that credit restrictions will ease and allow more homebuyers to take advantage of current opportunities."
Existing-home sales are forecast to edge up about 1% this year. Based on NAR’s current projection model, existing-home sales would total 4.96 million in 2011. NAR is revising downward existing-home sales totals in recent years although it expects little change to previously reported comparisons based on percentage change.
New-home sales for 2011 are projected at 302,000 this year, a record low, with expectations that they will rise about 23% to 372,000 in 2012.
Housing starts are forecast to rise about 8% to 630,000 from 583,000 in 2011.
With falling inventory, the median home price should rise in 2012, he said. "Home prices have yet to show a definitive stabilization pattern in most areas. Still, given an over-correction in prices, there likely will be moderate appreciation in 2012," Yun said.
Richard Peach, senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Board of New York, said the economy continues to disappoint. "Among the significant structural impediments are the legacy of the housing boom and bust, and fiscal contrition at the state and local level."
He promoted moving foreclosures by giving incentives to military servicemembers.
"My idea is to allocate certificates to 2.5 million service members who served in Afghanistan and Iraq that could be used as a down payment on a foreclosed home in the Fannie or Freddie portfolio," he said. This would help to absorb the inventory and stabilize the housing market.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/11/housing-to-gradually-improve-in-2012-nar-economist-says
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Gradual improvement in the housing market is expected next year, with existing-home sales edging up 4% to 5% and new home sales getting an even bigger boost off this year's record lows, the chief economist of the nation's largest real estate group said Friday.
"Tight mortgage credit conditions have been holding back homebuyers all year, and consumer confidence has been shaky recently," Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, said. "Nonetheless, there is a sizeable pent-up demand based on population growth, employment levels and a doubling-up phenomenon that can’t continue indefinitely."
Yun, who made his comments during the annual NAR conference for real estate agents under way in Anaheim, Calif., projected gross domestic product growth of 1.8% for 2011, rising to 2.2% in 2012 with the unemployment rate declining to 8.7% by the second half of 2012.
Mortgage interest rates, he predicted, would gradually rise from record 2011 lows to 4.5% by the middle of 2012.
"Very favorable affordability conditions will dominate next year as well, which will probably be the second best year on record dating back to 1970. Our hope is that credit restrictions will ease and allow more homebuyers to take advantage of current opportunities."
Existing-home sales are forecast to edge up about 1% this year. Based on NAR’s current projection model, existing-home sales would total 4.96 million in 2011. NAR is revising downward existing-home sales totals in recent years although it expects little change to previously reported comparisons based on percentage change.
New-home sales for 2011 are projected at 302,000 this year, a record low, with expectations that they will rise about 23% to 372,000 in 2012.
Housing starts are forecast to rise about 8% to 630,000 from 583,000 in 2011.
With falling inventory, the median home price should rise in 2012, he said. "Home prices have yet to show a definitive stabilization pattern in most areas. Still, given an over-correction in prices, there likely will be moderate appreciation in 2012," Yun said.
Richard Peach, senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Board of New York, said the economy continues to disappoint. "Among the significant structural impediments are the legacy of the housing boom and bust, and fiscal contrition at the state and local level."
He promoted moving foreclosures by giving incentives to military servicemembers.
"My idea is to allocate certificates to 2.5 million service members who served in Afghanistan and Iraq that could be used as a down payment on a foreclosed home in the Fannie or Freddie portfolio," he said. This would help to absorb the inventory and stabilize the housing market.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/11/housing-to-gradually-improve-in-2012-nar-economist-says
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Friday, November 11, 2011
Data on working moms reflects seismic shift in household behavior, attitudes
Source: New Strategist Publications
Which comes first, a change in attitudes or a change in behavior? This chicken-or-egg debate has long raged in social science circles. Nowhere is it better showcased than in the Census Bureau's new report, Maternity Leave and Employment Patterns of First-Time Mothers: 1961-2008. The report documents the rise of working women and mothers over the past five decades--a time when work became the norm for women not only before and during pregnancy, but after having children as well. The percentage of women who worked during their first pregnancy climbed from 44 percent in 1961-65 to 66 percent in 2006-08--a gain of 22 percentage points, according to the report. The even bigger change was this: the percentage of women who were working within a year after having their first child leaped from just 17 percent in 1961-65 to the 64 percent majority by 2005-07--a 47 percentage point change.
This behavior change was accompanied by changing attitudes toward working mothers. For the past thirty years, the General Social Survey has been asking the American public the question, "A working mother can establish just as warm and secure a relationship with her children as a mother who does not work. Do you agree or disagree?" In 1977 (the first year the question was asked), only 49 percent of the public agreed. By 2010, the 76 percent majority of the public agreed that a working mother could have just as good a relationship with her children as a mother who did not work. So which came first--the chicken or the egg? Did the growing necessity for women to work change attitudes toward working mothers? Or did changing attitudes toward working mothers free more women to go to work after having children?
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/data-on-working-moms-reflects-seismic-shift-in-household-behavior--attitudes.aspx?cid=BP:111111:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Which comes first, a change in attitudes or a change in behavior? This chicken-or-egg debate has long raged in social science circles. Nowhere is it better showcased than in the Census Bureau's new report, Maternity Leave and Employment Patterns of First-Time Mothers: 1961-2008. The report documents the rise of working women and mothers over the past five decades--a time when work became the norm for women not only before and during pregnancy, but after having children as well. The percentage of women who worked during their first pregnancy climbed from 44 percent in 1961-65 to 66 percent in 2006-08--a gain of 22 percentage points, according to the report. The even bigger change was this: the percentage of women who were working within a year after having their first child leaped from just 17 percent in 1961-65 to the 64 percent majority by 2005-07--a 47 percentage point change.
This behavior change was accompanied by changing attitudes toward working mothers. For the past thirty years, the General Social Survey has been asking the American public the question, "A working mother can establish just as warm and secure a relationship with her children as a mother who does not work. Do you agree or disagree?" In 1977 (the first year the question was asked), only 49 percent of the public agreed. By 2010, the 76 percent majority of the public agreed that a working mother could have just as good a relationship with her children as a mother who did not work. So which came first--the chicken or the egg? Did the growing necessity for women to work change attitudes toward working mothers? Or did changing attitudes toward working mothers free more women to go to work after having children?
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/data-on-working-moms-reflects-seismic-shift-in-household-behavior--attitudes.aspx?cid=BP:111111:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
The mortgage of the future
Source: Business Week
Easy-to-get, overly complicated home loans inflated a bubble that popped disastrously. Though we’re still in the middle of the crisis, it’s time to devise a safer housing finance system so this won’t happen again.
Samuel Perez has a steady job running trains for the New York City subway system on the No. 4 line. His wife, Rosemarie, earns a reliable paycheck as a unionized school bus driver in the Bronx. In 2003 they bought a semi-attached, two-story house in unfashionable western Staten Island for $246,000—as cheap as New York City real estate gets. With two children and a foster child at home, they’re not big spenders. “We haven’t taken a vacation in years,” Rosemarie says.
If you’ve paid any attention to the U.S. housing market over the past four years, you probably know where this is headed.
One financial hiccup—in 2009, Rosemarie lost her previous job as a real estate agent—and the Perezes fell behind on their payments. They say they’ve since tried to get current on the mortgage, but the bank that services it, Wachovia Mortgage, has refused to accept any payment, trying instead to get them to sell the house and move out. The bank filed a foreclosure notice in 2010, which it has since tried to withdraw without explanation. The Perezes think they have a better shot at getting a fair deal if their case stays in court, so they’re opposing the bank’s effort to withdraw the notice. They don’t know where they’ll be living in a year.
The Perezes’ mortgage is typical of the boom era’s excesses, a Pick-a-Payment loan that allowed borrowers to pay less than the full interest due. It came from World Savings Bank, which was later acquired by Wachovia Mortgage, now part of Wells Fargo Bank (WFC). The couple mistakenly believed that because they were making 26 payments a year rather than 24, they were paying off the loan on an accelerated schedule. Instead, unpaid interest was getting added to the principal; they were getting deeper in debt. (Wachovia Mortgage’s lawyer on the Perezes’ foreclosure case did not respond to a request for comment.)
“What’s sad is that I didn’t educate myself,” Rosemarie says on a rainy Thursday evening at the dinner table, having just made the long commute home from her bus route. “I was so naive. I just thought, ‘Everybody does it. It has to be right.’ ” She adds: “We thought we were going to be happy here. I feel like we really failed.”
Every foreclosure story is someone’s tragedy; when there are hundreds of thousands, they’re a macroeconomic disaster. There’s widespread agreement that what’s happening to families like the Perezes mustn’t happen again—and heated disagreement over how exactly to prevent its happening. The White House, Congress, bankers, and assorted policy wonks are at odds on how to build a safer mortgage system. Low-income Americans don’t want lending standards so tough that they’re locked out of owning a home. Bankers fear restrictions that would kill their profits. Conservatives want government out of the mortgage market altogether, while liberals say that would spell the demise of affordable long-term fixed-rate loans.
The sooner America figures out a new mortgage finance system, the sooner lenders and borrowers alike will have the confidence to go ahead and make long-term commitments. So although housing is still deep in the hole, it’s time to take a page from Franklin D. Roosevelt’s playbook and plan for the peace while the war is still on.
Because the pain of the housing mess is still throbbing—foreclosures have pushed neighborhoods into dereliction; pension and mutual funds have taken big losses on mortgage-backed securities; taxpayers have pumped more than $150 billion into Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) —it’s easy to forget that this isn’t the first time toxic mortgages have poisoned the economy. The housing bubble of the 1920s that gave way to the Great Depression of the 1930s was inflated with toxic air, too.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/the-mortgage-of-the-future.aspx?cid=BP:111111:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Easy-to-get, overly complicated home loans inflated a bubble that popped disastrously. Though we’re still in the middle of the crisis, it’s time to devise a safer housing finance system so this won’t happen again.
Samuel Perez has a steady job running trains for the New York City subway system on the No. 4 line. His wife, Rosemarie, earns a reliable paycheck as a unionized school bus driver in the Bronx. In 2003 they bought a semi-attached, two-story house in unfashionable western Staten Island for $246,000—as cheap as New York City real estate gets. With two children and a foster child at home, they’re not big spenders. “We haven’t taken a vacation in years,” Rosemarie says.
If you’ve paid any attention to the U.S. housing market over the past four years, you probably know where this is headed.
One financial hiccup—in 2009, Rosemarie lost her previous job as a real estate agent—and the Perezes fell behind on their payments. They say they’ve since tried to get current on the mortgage, but the bank that services it, Wachovia Mortgage, has refused to accept any payment, trying instead to get them to sell the house and move out. The bank filed a foreclosure notice in 2010, which it has since tried to withdraw without explanation. The Perezes think they have a better shot at getting a fair deal if their case stays in court, so they’re opposing the bank’s effort to withdraw the notice. They don’t know where they’ll be living in a year.
The Perezes’ mortgage is typical of the boom era’s excesses, a Pick-a-Payment loan that allowed borrowers to pay less than the full interest due. It came from World Savings Bank, which was later acquired by Wachovia Mortgage, now part of Wells Fargo Bank (WFC). The couple mistakenly believed that because they were making 26 payments a year rather than 24, they were paying off the loan on an accelerated schedule. Instead, unpaid interest was getting added to the principal; they were getting deeper in debt. (Wachovia Mortgage’s lawyer on the Perezes’ foreclosure case did not respond to a request for comment.)
“What’s sad is that I didn’t educate myself,” Rosemarie says on a rainy Thursday evening at the dinner table, having just made the long commute home from her bus route. “I was so naive. I just thought, ‘Everybody does it. It has to be right.’ ” She adds: “We thought we were going to be happy here. I feel like we really failed.”
Every foreclosure story is someone’s tragedy; when there are hundreds of thousands, they’re a macroeconomic disaster. There’s widespread agreement that what’s happening to families like the Perezes mustn’t happen again—and heated disagreement over how exactly to prevent its happening. The White House, Congress, bankers, and assorted policy wonks are at odds on how to build a safer mortgage system. Low-income Americans don’t want lending standards so tough that they’re locked out of owning a home. Bankers fear restrictions that would kill their profits. Conservatives want government out of the mortgage market altogether, while liberals say that would spell the demise of affordable long-term fixed-rate loans.
The sooner America figures out a new mortgage finance system, the sooner lenders and borrowers alike will have the confidence to go ahead and make long-term commitments. So although housing is still deep in the hole, it’s time to take a page from Franklin D. Roosevelt’s playbook and plan for the peace while the war is still on.
Because the pain of the housing mess is still throbbing—foreclosures have pushed neighborhoods into dereliction; pension and mutual funds have taken big losses on mortgage-backed securities; taxpayers have pumped more than $150 billion into Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) —it’s easy to forget that this isn’t the first time toxic mortgages have poisoned the economy. The housing bubble of the 1920s that gave way to the Great Depression of the 1930s was inflated with toxic air, too.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/the-mortgage-of-the-future.aspx?cid=BP:111111:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Home prices weighed down by distress in three out of four U.S. markets
Source: Wall Street Journal
U.S. home prices fell in nearly 75% of metropolitan areas in the third quarter and the national median price dropped as the housing market showed renewed weakness in the second half of the year.
The median price for previously occupied homes sold in the July-September quarter fell compared with last year in 111 out of 150 areas tracked by the National Association of Realtors, the trade group said Wednesday. Prices rose in 39 metro areas.
The results were roughly even with the second quarter, in which median prices fell in 109 out of 151 cities tracked by the real estate trade association. The national median price for single-family homes sold in the third quarter was $169,500, down 4.7% from the same quarter a year earlier.
Home sales in the third quarter were down 0.1% from the second quarter, but were up 17% from a year earlier, the Realtors’ group said.
“Home sales need to recover first, only then can prices stabilize,” said Lawrence Yun, the Realtors’ chief economist, in a statement.
The metro areas showing the biggest decline in median prices from a year earlier were Mobile, Ala. (-17.7%), Phoenix, Ariz. (-17.6%), Allentown, Pa. (-17.5%) and Salt Lake City (-15.3%). Areas showing price increases were Grand Rapids, Mich. (23.7%), South Bend, Ind. (19.8%), Palm Bay-Melbourne, Fla. (17.7%) and Youngstown, Ohio. (13.1%).
With the economy weak and many Americans reluctant to commit to a home purchase, the housing market has been slow to recover from the worst downtown in decades. The Realtors’ group said last month that the number of people who signed contracts to purchase previously occupied homes in the U.S. sank in September to the lowest level in five months.
Nationwide, “distressed property,” including foreclosures and homes at risk of foreclosure, accounted for 30% of third-quarter transactions, down from 33% in the second quarter, the Realtors’ group estimated.
Corrections & Amplifications Home prices rose 13.1% in Youngstown, Ohio, in the third quarter. An earlier version of this article incorrectly indicated that the increase took place in Youngstown, Pa.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/home-prices-weighed-down-by-distress-in-three-out-of-four-u-s--markets.aspx?cid=BP:111011:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
U.S. home prices fell in nearly 75% of metropolitan areas in the third quarter and the national median price dropped as the housing market showed renewed weakness in the second half of the year.
The median price for previously occupied homes sold in the July-September quarter fell compared with last year in 111 out of 150 areas tracked by the National Association of Realtors, the trade group said Wednesday. Prices rose in 39 metro areas.
The results were roughly even with the second quarter, in which median prices fell in 109 out of 151 cities tracked by the real estate trade association. The national median price for single-family homes sold in the third quarter was $169,500, down 4.7% from the same quarter a year earlier.
Home sales in the third quarter were down 0.1% from the second quarter, but were up 17% from a year earlier, the Realtors’ group said.
“Home sales need to recover first, only then can prices stabilize,” said Lawrence Yun, the Realtors’ chief economist, in a statement.
The metro areas showing the biggest decline in median prices from a year earlier were Mobile, Ala. (-17.7%), Phoenix, Ariz. (-17.6%), Allentown, Pa. (-17.5%) and Salt Lake City (-15.3%). Areas showing price increases were Grand Rapids, Mich. (23.7%), South Bend, Ind. (19.8%), Palm Bay-Melbourne, Fla. (17.7%) and Youngstown, Ohio. (13.1%).
With the economy weak and many Americans reluctant to commit to a home purchase, the housing market has been slow to recover from the worst downtown in decades. The Realtors’ group said last month that the number of people who signed contracts to purchase previously occupied homes in the U.S. sank in September to the lowest level in five months.
Nationwide, “distressed property,” including foreclosures and homes at risk of foreclosure, accounted for 30% of third-quarter transactions, down from 33% in the second quarter, the Realtors’ group estimated.
Corrections & Amplifications Home prices rose 13.1% in Youngstown, Ohio, in the third quarter. An earlier version of this article incorrectly indicated that the increase took place in Youngstown, Pa.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/home-prices-weighed-down-by-distress-in-three-out-of-four-u-s--markets.aspx?cid=BP:111011:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Fewer potential 'sellers' are waiting for a market turn in their favor: Move Inc.
Source: Inman News
The number of homeowners who delayed selling because of the real estate market has declined slightly in the last 18 months, suggesting the pending supply of "visible" homes is stabilizing, Realtor.com operator Move Inc. said in releasing the results of a national housing survey.
The telephone survey of 1,000 adults, conducted Oct. 7-9, revealed that 17.5 percent of homeowners had put off a sale in the last 12 months because of market conditions. That's down from the 19.2 percent who said the same thing in a survey conducted a year and a half ago.
More homeowners 35-49 had delayed a sale (22 percent), and those making $40,000 to $49,000 a year were also more likely to be waiting for market conditions to improve (21 percent).
If prices went up 20 percent, 55.4 percent of homeowners said they'd be motivated to sell, down from 61.6 percent of those surveyed in June 2009.
The decline in this measure of "pending price-motivated inventory" suggests many owners may have sold when the federal homebuyer tax credits temporarily shored up prices in 2010, Move said.
Based on the survey, a 5 percent increase in prices today would motivate 11.7 percent of owners to sell their home.
On the demand side of the equation, 23.1 percent of those surveyed said they've delayed purchasing a home because of concerns about the local real estate market.
Uncertainty about future prices, concern about the economy and jobs, and difficulty saving for down payments were the three main factors suppressing near-term demand, with only 2 percent of those surveyed saying they plan to buy in the next 12 months.
Just over half (55.1 percent) of those planning to buy in two or more years said they don't have enough saved for a down payment or closing costs, while 53.1 percent of future buyers said they're waiting because they expect prices to stabilize or increase.
Concern about their jobs or the economy as a whole was an issue for 52.5 percent of future buyers, and 34.6 percent said they're waiting because they can't qualify for a loan or that credit is not affordable.
Nearly three quarters of those surveyed (73.1 percent) believe conditions for buying a home a year from now will be the same or worse than today, while just under a quarter (23.2 percent) expect homebuying conditions will be better.
Nearly two-thirds (61 percent) of those who plan to purchase a home say they'd be first-time homebuyers, and about three-quarters (76.6 percent) are so-called "Millennials," the generation born from 1982 through 2000.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/fewer-potential--sellers--are-waiting-for-a-market-turn-in-their-favor--move-inc-.aspx?cid=BP:110911:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
The number of homeowners who delayed selling because of the real estate market has declined slightly in the last 18 months, suggesting the pending supply of "visible" homes is stabilizing, Realtor.com operator Move Inc. said in releasing the results of a national housing survey.
The telephone survey of 1,000 adults, conducted Oct. 7-9, revealed that 17.5 percent of homeowners had put off a sale in the last 12 months because of market conditions. That's down from the 19.2 percent who said the same thing in a survey conducted a year and a half ago.
More homeowners 35-49 had delayed a sale (22 percent), and those making $40,000 to $49,000 a year were also more likely to be waiting for market conditions to improve (21 percent).
If prices went up 20 percent, 55.4 percent of homeowners said they'd be motivated to sell, down from 61.6 percent of those surveyed in June 2009.
The decline in this measure of "pending price-motivated inventory" suggests many owners may have sold when the federal homebuyer tax credits temporarily shored up prices in 2010, Move said.
Based on the survey, a 5 percent increase in prices today would motivate 11.7 percent of owners to sell their home.
On the demand side of the equation, 23.1 percent of those surveyed said they've delayed purchasing a home because of concerns about the local real estate market.
Uncertainty about future prices, concern about the economy and jobs, and difficulty saving for down payments were the three main factors suppressing near-term demand, with only 2 percent of those surveyed saying they plan to buy in the next 12 months.
Just over half (55.1 percent) of those planning to buy in two or more years said they don't have enough saved for a down payment or closing costs, while 53.1 percent of future buyers said they're waiting because they expect prices to stabilize or increase.
Concern about their jobs or the economy as a whole was an issue for 52.5 percent of future buyers, and 34.6 percent said they're waiting because they can't qualify for a loan or that credit is not affordable.
Nearly three quarters of those surveyed (73.1 percent) believe conditions for buying a home a year from now will be the same or worse than today, while just under a quarter (23.2 percent) expect homebuying conditions will be better.
Nearly two-thirds (61 percent) of those who plan to purchase a home say they'd be first-time homebuyers, and about three-quarters (76.6 percent) are so-called "Millennials," the generation born from 1982 through 2000.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/fewer-potential--sellers--are-waiting-for-a-market-turn-in-their-favor--move-inc-.aspx?cid=BP:110911:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Job openings data show encouraging signs
Source: New York Times
The number of people leaving or receiving jobs picked up in September, the Labor Department reported Tuesday, a sign that that the labor market may be regaining its health.
Both hires and separations have been relatively stagnant in the last year, with companies too nervous to hire or let anyone go, and employees too frightened to leave their jobs. Layoffs in particular had reached record lows earlier this year. But levels of both rose in September.
While a rise in separations, at least, may not sound like welcome news, it means that companies and workers are finally more willing to start making decisions again. Uncertainty about the state of the economy had largely frozen both hiring and firing, and without people leaving their jobs, companies had nobody to replace with new workers. Greater churn in the job market now potentially means more opportunities down the line for the 14 million unemployed workers sitting on the sidelines.
The turnover is still not as great as it was before the recession began, however, when the population was also smaller.
Particularly promising is that the number of quits — that is, workers who voluntarily left their jobs, as opposed to being fired or laid off — rose in September, reaching its highest total since November 2008. That probably means that workers finally feel more confident that they can find new work if they are unhappy with their current position.
The best news was in job openings, which was at its highest level since August 2008, the month before Lehman Brothers failed. That also helped bring down the number of jobless workers per opening to 4.1, which, while still historically high, is far better than its peak of 6.9 unemployed workers per opening in July 2009.
Continued competition among unemployed workers implies that wage inflation is unlikely to hit anytime soon, according to Henry Mo, vice president of economics at Credit Suisse.
The main continued area of concern in the Labor Department’s report was the disconnect between job openings and hiring. There has been decent growth in the number of job openings since the recovery officially began, with openings up 38 percent since June 2009, but growth in the number of hiring has been very slow, up only 17 percent.
It’s not clear what to make of this. The disconnect could be due to a skills mismatch — that is, workers don’t have the skills that employers are looking for. Or it could just be a sign of continued hesitation among employers, who are waiting for the recovery to pick up more speed before they commit to filling an opening.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/job-openings-data-show-encouraging-signs.aspx?cid=BP:110911:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: htp://www.londonproperties.com
The number of people leaving or receiving jobs picked up in September, the Labor Department reported Tuesday, a sign that that the labor market may be regaining its health.
Both hires and separations have been relatively stagnant in the last year, with companies too nervous to hire or let anyone go, and employees too frightened to leave their jobs. Layoffs in particular had reached record lows earlier this year. But levels of both rose in September.
While a rise in separations, at least, may not sound like welcome news, it means that companies and workers are finally more willing to start making decisions again. Uncertainty about the state of the economy had largely frozen both hiring and firing, and without people leaving their jobs, companies had nobody to replace with new workers. Greater churn in the job market now potentially means more opportunities down the line for the 14 million unemployed workers sitting on the sidelines.
The turnover is still not as great as it was before the recession began, however, when the population was also smaller.
Particularly promising is that the number of quits — that is, workers who voluntarily left their jobs, as opposed to being fired or laid off — rose in September, reaching its highest total since November 2008. That probably means that workers finally feel more confident that they can find new work if they are unhappy with their current position.
The best news was in job openings, which was at its highest level since August 2008, the month before Lehman Brothers failed. That also helped bring down the number of jobless workers per opening to 4.1, which, while still historically high, is far better than its peak of 6.9 unemployed workers per opening in July 2009.
Continued competition among unemployed workers implies that wage inflation is unlikely to hit anytime soon, according to Henry Mo, vice president of economics at Credit Suisse.
The main continued area of concern in the Labor Department’s report was the disconnect between job openings and hiring. There has been decent growth in the number of job openings since the recovery officially began, with openings up 38 percent since June 2009, but growth in the number of hiring has been very slow, up only 17 percent.
It’s not clear what to make of this. The disconnect could be due to a skills mismatch — that is, workers don’t have the skills that employers are looking for. Or it could just be a sign of continued hesitation among employers, who are waiting for the recovery to pick up more speed before they commit to filling an opening.
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/job-openings-data-show-encouraging-signs.aspx?cid=BP:110911:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: htp://www.londonproperties.com
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
The cause and effect of the housing crisis: falling prices
Source: Financial Times
The Financial Times' Shahien Nasiripour, Michael Mackenzie and Nicole Bullock report on the latest policy measures under consideration to try to stanch the downward flow of house prices and their destructive effect on the rest of the economy. Click the link below to access the article:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a05d2a58-0565-11e1-a429-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1d9CgNPn9
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/the-cause-and-effect-of-the-housing-crisis--falling-prices.aspx?cid=BP:110811:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
The Financial Times' Shahien Nasiripour, Michael Mackenzie and Nicole Bullock report on the latest policy measures under consideration to try to stanch the downward flow of house prices and their destructive effect on the rest of the economy. Click the link below to access the article:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a05d2a58-0565-11e1-a429-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1d9CgNPn9
URL to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/the-cause-and-effect-of-the-housing-crisis--falling-prices.aspx?cid=BP:110811:JUMP
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Monday, November 7, 2011
U.S. mortgage modifications rose in September
Source: Reuters
Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Obama administration's main home foreclosure prevention program saw a substantial boost in permanent loan modifications in September, in part due to improved technology for reporting the status of cases.
U.S. housing authorities said on Thursday the Home Affordable Modification program helped 40,141 homeowners achieve a permanently lower mortgage payment in September, up from 25,434 homeowners in August.
The U.S. Treasury Department and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said 856,974 homeowners had been granted permanent loan modifications since the program was launched in 2009. But 136,362 of these reductions had been canceled -- an increase of 10,064 in September.
When it launched the program, which provides financial incentives to servicers who rework mortgages for struggling borrowers, the Obama administration had hoped it would reach as many as 5 million borrowers. So far, the program has started 1.71 million trial and permanent modifications.
In the September data, the agencies said that some permanent modifications were previously reported as "aged" trial modifications due to problems that prevented mortgage servicers from reporting them as permanent modifications. The technical changes allowed these loans to be put into the permanent category, the agencies said.
URL to original article article: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/usa-housing-foreclosures-idUSN1E7A21H120111103
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Obama administration's main home foreclosure prevention program saw a substantial boost in permanent loan modifications in September, in part due to improved technology for reporting the status of cases.
U.S. housing authorities said on Thursday the Home Affordable Modification program helped 40,141 homeowners achieve a permanently lower mortgage payment in September, up from 25,434 homeowners in August.
The U.S. Treasury Department and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said 856,974 homeowners had been granted permanent loan modifications since the program was launched in 2009. But 136,362 of these reductions had been canceled -- an increase of 10,064 in September.
When it launched the program, which provides financial incentives to servicers who rework mortgages for struggling borrowers, the Obama administration had hoped it would reach as many as 5 million borrowers. So far, the program has started 1.71 million trial and permanent modifications.
In the September data, the agencies said that some permanent modifications were previously reported as "aged" trial modifications due to problems that prevented mortgage servicers from reporting them as permanent modifications. The technical changes allowed these loans to be put into the permanent category, the agencies said.
URL to original article article: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/usa-housing-foreclosures-idUSN1E7A21H120111103
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Home-Ownership Rate Climbs: Blip or Early Trend?.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
The nation’s homeownership rate ticked up in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, suggesting that the three-year decline in home ownership may be starting to bottom out.
The rental vacancy rate also rose, a possible sign that rising rents could be reducing demand, according to a report released from the Census Bureau Wednesday.
The nation’s seasonally adjusted home-ownership rate stood at 66.1% in the third quarter, up slightly from 66% in the prior quarter but lower than 66.7% a year earlier. The rental vacancy rate was 9.8%, up from 9.2% in the second quarter and down from 10.3% a year earlier.
To be sure, industry watchers warn against reading too much into results from a single quarter. The increase in home ownership is small and the number could begin declining again in the chilly fourth quarter, when few Americans buy homes. And researchers at the New York Fed have pointed out that the millions of underwater borrowers mean that the “effective” rate of home ownership is much lower than the official statistic.
Paul Dales, a senior U.S. economist with Capital Economics, said he was initially surprised by the increases.
Still, “I don’t think this alters the long term trends that have been going on,” he said. “The overall housing market will remain weak and the rental market will remain strong.”
During the housing boom, when easy credit made mortgages easy to obtain, Americans rushed to own homes, pushing the ownership rate near 70%. But the rate has fallen in recent years as owners began losing their homes to foreclosure or abandoning them. Last month, the Census reported that the rate of home ownership in the U.S. fell in the past decade by the largest amount since the Great Depression.
Meanwhile, millions of Americans have turned to the rental market at a time when little new product is being built, allowing landlords to raise rents. The national rate came in at $1,004 in the third quarter, up from $981 a year earlier, according to Reis Inc. While that’s benefiting owners of rental units, there are growing concerns that, given the weak economy, tenants won’t be able to afford continued increases. The Census’ increased vacancy rate also indicates that some tenants might be balking at asking rents.
When compared with the second quarter, the home-ownership rate increased slightly in the four U.S. regions: Northeast, Midwest, South and West. The Northeast’s climb to 63.7% made it the biggest gainer from the prior quarter, according to the Census report. The region’s rate slipped from a year earlier.
Minorities, who traditionally have the lowest home-ownership rate, owned more homes in the third quarter. The “black alone” category came in at 45.6%, up from the second-quarter’s 44.2%, while Hispanics climbed to 47.6%, from 46.6%. Both groups also saw gains from the year-earlier period.
URL to original article: http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/11/02/home-ownership-rate-climbs-blip-or-early-trend/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=WSJ_Real+Estate_
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
The nation’s homeownership rate ticked up in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, suggesting that the three-year decline in home ownership may be starting to bottom out.
The rental vacancy rate also rose, a possible sign that rising rents could be reducing demand, according to a report released from the Census Bureau Wednesday.
The nation’s seasonally adjusted home-ownership rate stood at 66.1% in the third quarter, up slightly from 66% in the prior quarter but lower than 66.7% a year earlier. The rental vacancy rate was 9.8%, up from 9.2% in the second quarter and down from 10.3% a year earlier.
To be sure, industry watchers warn against reading too much into results from a single quarter. The increase in home ownership is small and the number could begin declining again in the chilly fourth quarter, when few Americans buy homes. And researchers at the New York Fed have pointed out that the millions of underwater borrowers mean that the “effective” rate of home ownership is much lower than the official statistic.
Paul Dales, a senior U.S. economist with Capital Economics, said he was initially surprised by the increases.
Still, “I don’t think this alters the long term trends that have been going on,” he said. “The overall housing market will remain weak and the rental market will remain strong.”
During the housing boom, when easy credit made mortgages easy to obtain, Americans rushed to own homes, pushing the ownership rate near 70%. But the rate has fallen in recent years as owners began losing their homes to foreclosure or abandoning them. Last month, the Census reported that the rate of home ownership in the U.S. fell in the past decade by the largest amount since the Great Depression.
Meanwhile, millions of Americans have turned to the rental market at a time when little new product is being built, allowing landlords to raise rents. The national rate came in at $1,004 in the third quarter, up from $981 a year earlier, according to Reis Inc. While that’s benefiting owners of rental units, there are growing concerns that, given the weak economy, tenants won’t be able to afford continued increases. The Census’ increased vacancy rate also indicates that some tenants might be balking at asking rents.
When compared with the second quarter, the home-ownership rate increased slightly in the four U.S. regions: Northeast, Midwest, South and West. The Northeast’s climb to 63.7% made it the biggest gainer from the prior quarter, according to the Census report. The region’s rate slipped from a year earlier.
Minorities, who traditionally have the lowest home-ownership rate, owned more homes in the third quarter. The “black alone” category came in at 45.6%, up from the second-quarter’s 44.2%, while Hispanics climbed to 47.6%, from 46.6%. Both groups also saw gains from the year-earlier period.
URL to original article: http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/11/02/home-ownership-rate-climbs-blip-or-early-trend/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=WSJ_Real+Estate_
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Friday, November 4, 2011
Nonfarm payrolls add 80,000 jobs in October, unemployment at 9%
by JASON PHILYAW
Nonfarm payroll employment rose in October and the nation's unemployment rate inched lower to 9%.
The Labor Department said the economy added 80,000 jobs last month with modest growth in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, health care and mining, while government jobs continue to trend lower.
Analysts surveyed by Econoday expected 90,000 new jobs for October with a range of estimates between 64,000 and 152,000.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payrolls averaged monthly growth of 125,000 the past 12 months. Professional and business services added 32,000 jobs in October and have increased employment by 562,000 the past year.
The construction industry shed another 20,000 jobs last month, offsetting September's gain of 27,000 that was largely attributable to nonresidential construction.
Government employment fell by 24,000 in October with most of the losses in the non-education sector. Employment in state and local government has been declining since the second half of 2008, according to the Labor Department.
Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Toronto-based Capital Economics, said the employment data for October "has pluses and minuses but, on balance, it is positive."
"According to the household survey, the economy has added slightly more than 1 million jobs in the past three months alone. Even allowing for the inherent volatility in the household survey, that is an impressive tally," Ashworth said.
The federal agency once again revised gains in nonfarm payrolls for August to a gain of 104,000 from 57,000. The Labor Department initially said no new jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls in August. The initial figure of 103,000 for September was revised to 158,000.
In the first quarter, the economy was adding about 220,000 jobs monthly, but nonfarm payroll growth averaged less than 100,000 jobs since April. After climbing to 9.8% in November, the unemployment rate has held steady between 9% and 9.2% since April.
The number of unemployed Americans fell slightly in October to 13.9 million from 14 million the prior month, with the long-term unemployed, or those without jobs for 27 weeks or more, dropping by 366,000 to 5.9 million.
On Wednesday, Automatic Data Processing Inc. said the private sector added 110,000 jobs in October. TrimTabs Investment Research estimates the economy added 160,000 jobs in October.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/04/nonfarm-payroll-add-80000-jobs-in-october-unemployment-at-9
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Nonfarm payroll employment rose in October and the nation's unemployment rate inched lower to 9%.
The Labor Department said the economy added 80,000 jobs last month with modest growth in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, health care and mining, while government jobs continue to trend lower.
Analysts surveyed by Econoday expected 90,000 new jobs for October with a range of estimates between 64,000 and 152,000.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payrolls averaged monthly growth of 125,000 the past 12 months. Professional and business services added 32,000 jobs in October and have increased employment by 562,000 the past year.
The construction industry shed another 20,000 jobs last month, offsetting September's gain of 27,000 that was largely attributable to nonresidential construction.
Government employment fell by 24,000 in October with most of the losses in the non-education sector. Employment in state and local government has been declining since the second half of 2008, according to the Labor Department.
Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Toronto-based Capital Economics, said the employment data for October "has pluses and minuses but, on balance, it is positive."
"According to the household survey, the economy has added slightly more than 1 million jobs in the past three months alone. Even allowing for the inherent volatility in the household survey, that is an impressive tally," Ashworth said.
The federal agency once again revised gains in nonfarm payrolls for August to a gain of 104,000 from 57,000. The Labor Department initially said no new jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls in August. The initial figure of 103,000 for September was revised to 158,000.
In the first quarter, the economy was adding about 220,000 jobs monthly, but nonfarm payroll growth averaged less than 100,000 jobs since April. After climbing to 9.8% in November, the unemployment rate has held steady between 9% and 9.2% since April.
The number of unemployed Americans fell slightly in October to 13.9 million from 14 million the prior month, with the long-term unemployed, or those without jobs for 27 weeks or more, dropping by 366,000 to 5.9 million.
On Wednesday, Automatic Data Processing Inc. said the private sector added 110,000 jobs in October. TrimTabs Investment Research estimates the economy added 160,000 jobs in October.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/04/nonfarm-payroll-add-80000-jobs-in-october-unemployment-at-9
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Thursday, November 3, 2011
42 Percent of Home Buyers are Unrealistic About Home Value Appreciation
SOURCE Zillow, Inc.
While Most Home Buyers Understand How to Buy a Home, Expectations for Homeownership are Out of Line with Reality, According to Zillow® Survey of Home Buyers
SEATTLE, Oct. 28, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Despite widespread volatility within the housing market and five consecutive years of home value declines, more than two in five (42 percent) of polled prospective home buyers believe home values typically appreciate by 7 percent a year, according to a recent survey by leading real estate information marketplace Zillow (NASDAQ: Z).
This is an unrealistic expectation as, historically, home values in a normal market tend to appreciate by 2-5 percent a year. (1)
Zillow, with Ipsos®, surveyed prospective home buyers (2), asking basic questions about the home buying process.
Despite the unrealistic expectations about home value appreciation, prospective home buyer respondents seem fairly knowledgeable about the home buying process, answering questions correctly more than half the time (65 percent). However, several important parts of the process confused them. Two in five (41 percent) buyers think they are required to buy private mortgage insurance (PMI) regardless of the amount of their down payment. In fact, lenders typically require PMI only when buyers are putting down less than 20 percent of the home's purchase price.
Additionally, more than half of prospective home buyers who were polled confuse appraisals and inspections. Fifty-six percent said the purpose of an appraisal was to determine if the home is in good condition, when in fact that is the purpose of an inspection.
"It's troubling that we're still in the midst of one of the worst housing recessions in history, and yet prospective buyers continue to have such high expectations for home value appreciation," said Dr. Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow. "It's great that buyers seem to have a fairly solid grasp of the home-buying process, but since this is one of the biggest financial decisions of most people's lives, it's even more important that they understand how that investment will appreciate after they sign the papers. Over-estimation of the appreciation potential will lead many to buy real estate when the time in which they plan to live in the house may make renting a better strategy."
Additional Survey Findings
•More than one-third (37 percent) of prospective home buyer respondents believe buying homeowner's insurance is optional. In reality, lenders require that borrowers purchase homeowner's insurance. This insurance protects the lender. If catastrophe strikes, the mortgage will be repaid from the insurance proceeds.
•Nearly half of polled prospective home buyers in the study do not understand when they will actually own the home they intend to buy. Forty-seven percent said a prospective buyer owns a home after the purchase contract is signed. The purchase and sales agreement merely kicks off the closing phase, which can be a lengthy process.
•The majority (87 percent) of polled prospective home buyers know that closing costs are negotiable and can vary by bank and lender. Lender fees, like loan-origination fees, administrative costs and other clerical fees, are typically the most negotiable in the home buying process.
Interactive Online Quiz and Resources Available
An online version of the Zillow survey, the "Buyer IQ Quiz," is available at http://www.zillow.com/mortgage-rates/buyer-iq-quiz/ and contains the correct answers. Following the quiz, participants are given a score and resources to learn more about the home-buying process.
About Zillow, Inc.
Zillow (NASDAQ: Z) is the leading real estate information marketplace, providing vital information about homes, real estate listings and mortgages through its website and mobile applications, enabling homeowners, buyers, sellers and renters to connect with real estate and mortgage professionals best suited to meet their needs. More than 24 million unique users visited Zillow's websites and mobile applications in September 2011. Zillow, Inc. operates Zillow.com®, Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, Zillow Mobile and Postlets®. The company is headquartered in Seattle.
Zillow, Zillow.com and Postlets are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc.
Ipsos is a registered trademark of Ipsos S.A.
(1)Over the period from 1890 to 2006, the average annual growth in home values was 3.7%. Source: Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller (Princeton University Press 2000, Broadway Books 2001, 2nd edition, 2005)
(2) These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted August 31-September 1, 2011. For the survey, a national sample of 1,012 adults aged 18 and over residing in the U.S. was interviewed via Ipsos' U.S. online omnibus. Among them, 177 reported that they plan to buy a home within the next 3 years, which qualifies them as "prospective home buyers." A survey with an unweighted probability sample of 1,012 and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in the U.S. been polled. The margin of error for a subgrouping of the survey population of 177 individuals would be +/-7.4. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/gender composition reflects that of the actual U.S. population according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
URL to original article: http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=240
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
While Most Home Buyers Understand How to Buy a Home, Expectations for Homeownership are Out of Line with Reality, According to Zillow® Survey of Home Buyers
SEATTLE, Oct. 28, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Despite widespread volatility within the housing market and five consecutive years of home value declines, more than two in five (42 percent) of polled prospective home buyers believe home values typically appreciate by 7 percent a year, according to a recent survey by leading real estate information marketplace Zillow (NASDAQ: Z).
This is an unrealistic expectation as, historically, home values in a normal market tend to appreciate by 2-5 percent a year. (1)
Zillow, with Ipsos®, surveyed prospective home buyers (2), asking basic questions about the home buying process.
Despite the unrealistic expectations about home value appreciation, prospective home buyer respondents seem fairly knowledgeable about the home buying process, answering questions correctly more than half the time (65 percent). However, several important parts of the process confused them. Two in five (41 percent) buyers think they are required to buy private mortgage insurance (PMI) regardless of the amount of their down payment. In fact, lenders typically require PMI only when buyers are putting down less than 20 percent of the home's purchase price.
Additionally, more than half of prospective home buyers who were polled confuse appraisals and inspections. Fifty-six percent said the purpose of an appraisal was to determine if the home is in good condition, when in fact that is the purpose of an inspection.
"It's troubling that we're still in the midst of one of the worst housing recessions in history, and yet prospective buyers continue to have such high expectations for home value appreciation," said Dr. Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow. "It's great that buyers seem to have a fairly solid grasp of the home-buying process, but since this is one of the biggest financial decisions of most people's lives, it's even more important that they understand how that investment will appreciate after they sign the papers. Over-estimation of the appreciation potential will lead many to buy real estate when the time in which they plan to live in the house may make renting a better strategy."
Additional Survey Findings
•More than one-third (37 percent) of prospective home buyer respondents believe buying homeowner's insurance is optional. In reality, lenders require that borrowers purchase homeowner's insurance. This insurance protects the lender. If catastrophe strikes, the mortgage will be repaid from the insurance proceeds.
•Nearly half of polled prospective home buyers in the study do not understand when they will actually own the home they intend to buy. Forty-seven percent said a prospective buyer owns a home after the purchase contract is signed. The purchase and sales agreement merely kicks off the closing phase, which can be a lengthy process.
•The majority (87 percent) of polled prospective home buyers know that closing costs are negotiable and can vary by bank and lender. Lender fees, like loan-origination fees, administrative costs and other clerical fees, are typically the most negotiable in the home buying process.
Interactive Online Quiz and Resources Available
An online version of the Zillow survey, the "Buyer IQ Quiz," is available at http://www.zillow.com/mortgage-rates/buyer-iq-quiz/ and contains the correct answers. Following the quiz, participants are given a score and resources to learn more about the home-buying process.
About Zillow, Inc.
Zillow (NASDAQ: Z) is the leading real estate information marketplace, providing vital information about homes, real estate listings and mortgages through its website and mobile applications, enabling homeowners, buyers, sellers and renters to connect with real estate and mortgage professionals best suited to meet their needs. More than 24 million unique users visited Zillow's websites and mobile applications in September 2011. Zillow, Inc. operates Zillow.com®, Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, Zillow Mobile and Postlets®. The company is headquartered in Seattle.
Zillow, Zillow.com and Postlets are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc.
Ipsos is a registered trademark of Ipsos S.A.
(1)Over the period from 1890 to 2006, the average annual growth in home values was 3.7%. Source: Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller (Princeton University Press 2000, Broadway Books 2001, 2nd edition, 2005)
(2) These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted August 31-September 1, 2011. For the survey, a national sample of 1,012 adults aged 18 and over residing in the U.S. was interviewed via Ipsos' U.S. online omnibus. Among them, 177 reported that they plan to buy a home within the next 3 years, which qualifies them as "prospective home buyers." A survey with an unweighted probability sample of 1,012 and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in the U.S. been polled. The margin of error for a subgrouping of the survey population of 177 individuals would be +/-7.4. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/gender composition reflects that of the actual U.S. population according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
URL to original article: http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=240
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Obama housing scorecard provides mixed picture of recovery
by JUSTIN T. HILLEY
New housing data from the Obama administration is underscoring the housing market's fragility.
The Obama administration's October Housing Scorecard Report revealed that September new home sales rose to 26,100, down from 26,300 the same month a year earlier, but up from August's total of 24,700.
Existing home sales grew to 409,200 in September, up 10% from 367,250 a year earlier. August existing home sales were higher than September at 421,700.
"Last month we saw a continued fall in mortgage defaults, due in part to our foreclosure prevention programs reaching more borrowers upstream in the process," said Raphael Bostic, assistant secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development. "And in the last quarter, a million more homeowners refinanced their loans under some of the lowest interest rates in history."
There were 70,700 notice of defaults, or foreclosure starts, in September, down 31% from a year earlier the same month when they totaled 102,400. They dropped slightly from last month when foreclosure starts were 78,900.
September refinance originations clocked in at 964,800, down 28% from 1,341,000 a year earlier in the same month.
First-time buyers in September rose to 217,000 from 196,900 the same month a year earlier.
"To help responsible homeowners, we have to make it easier for people to refinance at interest rates that are now near 4% — putting hundreds of dollars in real savings back in their pockets each month, and giving a boost to our fragile economy,” Bostic said.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/03/obama-housing-scorecard-provides-mixed-picture-of-recovery
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
New housing data from the Obama administration is underscoring the housing market's fragility.
The Obama administration's October Housing Scorecard Report revealed that September new home sales rose to 26,100, down from 26,300 the same month a year earlier, but up from August's total of 24,700.
Existing home sales grew to 409,200 in September, up 10% from 367,250 a year earlier. August existing home sales were higher than September at 421,700.
"Last month we saw a continued fall in mortgage defaults, due in part to our foreclosure prevention programs reaching more borrowers upstream in the process," said Raphael Bostic, assistant secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development. "And in the last quarter, a million more homeowners refinanced their loans under some of the lowest interest rates in history."
There were 70,700 notice of defaults, or foreclosure starts, in September, down 31% from a year earlier the same month when they totaled 102,400. They dropped slightly from last month when foreclosure starts were 78,900.
September refinance originations clocked in at 964,800, down 28% from 1,341,000 a year earlier in the same month.
First-time buyers in September rose to 217,000 from 196,900 the same month a year earlier.
"To help responsible homeowners, we have to make it easier for people to refinance at interest rates that are now near 4% — putting hundreds of dollars in real savings back in their pockets each month, and giving a boost to our fragile economy,” Bostic said.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/03/obama-housing-scorecard-provides-mixed-picture-of-recovery
For further information on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
3Q homeownership rate moves off lowest level in 13 years
by ANDREW SCOGGIN
The third-quarter homeownership rate rose to 66.3% in the third quarter, up from 65.9% in the previous quarter, which was the lowest since 1998. The quarterly increase was the first increase in two years.
When comparing quarter to quarter, U.S. homeownership dipped slightly from 66.9% in 3Q 2010, but remains near the lowest level in 13 years, according to the Census Bureau.
"The homeownership rate remains at a level that suggests America's love-affair with housing is still on the rocks," analysts at Toronto-based Capital Economics said.
The Midwest had the highest homeownership rate at 70.3%, followed by the South at 68.4%, the Northeast with 63.7% and 60.7% in the West. Homeownership rates peaked nationwide at 69.2% in both the second quarter and fourth quarter of 2004.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday that mortgage applications ticked higher 0.2% this week.
Rental vacancies in the third quarter rose to 9.8% from 9.2% in the second quarter, according to the Census Bureau. Rates were highest in the South at 12.2%, followed by the Midwest (10.5%), the Northeast (8%) and the West (7.3%).
"The modest increase in the rental vacancy rate in the third quarter does little to alter our view that rental yields will soon rise above 5.5%, comfortably beating the yields available on Treasurys and equities," Capital Economics said.
Vacancies for all housing types saw a small drop as well for the third quarter at 18.8 million, or 14.2% of all housing, down from 18.9 million a year earlier.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/02/3q-homeownership-rate-moves-off-lowest-level-in-13-years
For further infomation on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
The third-quarter homeownership rate rose to 66.3% in the third quarter, up from 65.9% in the previous quarter, which was the lowest since 1998. The quarterly increase was the first increase in two years.
When comparing quarter to quarter, U.S. homeownership dipped slightly from 66.9% in 3Q 2010, but remains near the lowest level in 13 years, according to the Census Bureau.
"The homeownership rate remains at a level that suggests America's love-affair with housing is still on the rocks," analysts at Toronto-based Capital Economics said.
The Midwest had the highest homeownership rate at 70.3%, followed by the South at 68.4%, the Northeast with 63.7% and 60.7% in the West. Homeownership rates peaked nationwide at 69.2% in both the second quarter and fourth quarter of 2004.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday that mortgage applications ticked higher 0.2% this week.
Rental vacancies in the third quarter rose to 9.8% from 9.2% in the second quarter, according to the Census Bureau. Rates were highest in the South at 12.2%, followed by the Midwest (10.5%), the Northeast (8%) and the West (7.3%).
"The modest increase in the rental vacancy rate in the third quarter does little to alter our view that rental yields will soon rise above 5.5%, comfortably beating the yields available on Treasurys and equities," Capital Economics said.
Vacancies for all housing types saw a small drop as well for the third quarter at 18.8 million, or 14.2% of all housing, down from 18.9 million a year earlier.
URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/02/3q-homeownership-rate-moves-off-lowest-level-in-13-years
For further infomation on Fresno Real Estate check: http://www.londonproperties.com
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