California mid-term outlook is for five-year building bounce: IHS

Source: Orange County (Calif.) Register

According to the Orange County Register's Jon Lansner, "California will lead the pack in a nationwide construction recovery, says a new forecast by economists at IHS Global Insight. According to IHS stats, California will have the most construction dollars spent among the states from 2011-16; will have the largest gain in yearly spending dollars between 2011 and 2016; and have the third highest annual average percentage gain through 2016." Net-net, the IHS forecast is a California vs. Texas stand-off when it comes to construction. For instance, the analysis predicts California construction will grow an average of 15.6% a year to 2016; Texas is predicted to average 5.6% annually. California construction spending will grow 3.7 times faster from 2011 to 2016 in terms of dollars spent — that’s a $55.8 billion gap. California construction will grow to 14.6% of U.S. construction spending by 2016 vs. 10.7% in 2011. Texas’ share will be 9.7% this year — and 8.5% in 2016. Touche!
California will lead the pack in a nationwide construction recovery, says a new forecast by economists at IHS Global Insight.

According to IHS stats, California will have the most construction dollars spent among the states from 2011-16; will have the largest gain in yearly spending dollars between 2011 and 2016; and have the third highest annual average percentage gain through 2016.

Says Jeannine Cataldi of IHS: "California is coming off of such low levels of construction activity, that the growth rates will be very high initially. California's economy is growing again, and will see strong economic growth over the near-term, translating into greater construction activity."

Where's the biggest pop among the states in dollar terms, 2011 vs. 2016 change in annual construction spending?

1.California will see a gain of $76.50 billion.
2.Florida gains $36.90 billion.
3.Texas gains $20.73 billion.
4.Georgia gains $17.98 billion.
5.Arizona gains $17.25 billion.

Which state sees that largest percentage-point gain -- average annual -- from 2011 through 2016?
1.Arizona will grow at an 18.6% annual pace.
2.Nevada grows 17.9% annually.
3.California grows 15.6% annually.
4.Florida grows 14.8% annually.
5.Georgia grows 14.5% annually.

Where will the most construction occur between this year and 2016, in terms of dollars spent?
1.California construction will spend $723 billion -- 13.6% of U.S. total expenditures in the 6 years.
2.Texas spends $473 billion -- 8.9% of U.S.
3.Florida spends $346 billion -- 6.5% of U.S.
4.New York spends $289 billion -- 5.4% of U.S.
5.North Carolina spends $191 billion -- 3.6% of U.S.

Nationwide, IHS for sees total construction spending averaging 8.6% annual growth to 2016 -- with double-digit expansions in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

Url to original article: http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/california-mid-term-outlook-is-for-five-year-building-bounce--ihs.aspx?cid=NWBD110720002

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