Analyst: Home price declines coming, but that could be a good thing

by KERRI PANCHUK

If banks ramp up next year and begin moving backlogged foreclosure inventory onto the market, homeowners and buyers could see further home price drops and those declines could go as deep as 10% to 15%, said Lance Roberts, CEO, economist and chief strategist at Streettalk Advisors.

Yet, Roberts in his forecast for 2012 adds a bit of humor to his predictions. He is confident, but not overly committal to a forecast, and chuckles when pointing out that the media and mainstream financial analysts previously called for home price bottoms in 2010 and 2011. Now many are forecasting a bottom in 2012, but Roberts is careful to recognize all the many knowns and unknowns that weigh on economies.

"I am in the camp that we are going to have slower economic growth (in 2012)," he said.

Currently, other analysts are projecting 2% to 2.5% growth. Roberts sees a sub-2% or 1% growth rate for next year.

"There is a current belief that the U.S. can grow even as China slows and the eurozone goes into recession," Roberts said in an interview with HousingWire. "But 20% of our exports go to the eurozone. If they go into recession, it is going to be difficult for us to avoid a recession without some type of stimulus program."

As far as gaining political capital for a third round of quantitative easing, Roberts says the Federal Reserve doesn't need it since it functions independent of Congress. "Ben Bernanke can launch a third round of quantitative easing if he chooses to do so. I think there is a likelihood we could see more stimulus," he said. Still, he says that move is contingent on what happens in Europe, China and stateside.

Roberts describes the housing market as one that is still undergoing a series of changes.

He points out that a majority of recent housing starts occurred in the multifamily apartment segment, suggesting more Americans are deleveraging and realizing not everyone will own a home.

Roberts doesn't view the past downturn or the possibility of a coming recession with doomsday glasses. Based on the supply and demand curve, the 2008 crisis was a long-time coming because government policy created a decade-long imbalance where homes were truly out of reach for borrowers and cheap credit made up the difference, he believes.

He sees recessions — when handled properly and without too much intervention — as the solution to getting demand and prices in line.

"Let's think about the average American salary," he said. "They make $55,000 a year. They now have to come up with a 20% down payment. Gone are the days of ninja loans. It's going to be harder for them to qualify to buy a house. If that is the situation, prices will have to fall further than the historic norm."

This is where Roberts throws out the possibility of another 10% to 15% home price decline.

But Roberts is more optimistic in one way: he sees recessions as a natural occurrence of a functioning marketplace. "They are a natural part of a market cycle," he said. "If the economy just goes up, things get excessively expensive and you set yourself up for a 2008-type crash."

He believes the recent pain is the result of government involvement in pushing homeownership and cheap credit. "The American Dream has never been homeownership," he said. "It was to have an opportunity to create a better life for yourself."

His verdict on the years leading up to the crisis and the past few years: "We basically tattooed American society with a horrible investment structure."

URL to original article: http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/30/analyst-deeper-home-prices-coming-could-be-a-good-thing

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